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Iran, Beware the Fangs of January, the Scourge of February, and the Ides of March

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Iran, Beware the Fangs of January, the Scourge of February, and the Ides of March is a work

 

Iran, Beware the Fangs of January, the Scourge of February, and the Ides of March

By Hassan Gimba (1)

The Arbiter

A few days ago, I woke in the night, anxious and checking the news, half-expecting America and Israel to have attacked Iran.

Given this tension, the central issue is the longstanding American-Israeli effort to destabilize Iran. Even though it cannot be exhausted in one article, I’d like you to come along as we look over the underlying hostility, the motives behind American and Israeli actions, and why both countries believe only a fractured, weakened Iran will serve their interests.

Talk of de-escalation and the apparent lowering of tensions is largely superficial. America—the dog—and Israel—the tail that wags it—will never rest until they see a Balkanized Iran; regime change to install a malleable monarchy is just a ruse. It’s the first step to Iran’s destruction, but first, the people must be tricked into thinking they will have a new government.

The tag team of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu will not be satisfied with merely installing a malleable regime, because they represent a concept whose custodians plan in decades and think in centuries. As long as Iran remains intact, a future “antagonistic” government could replace their pliable proxy—and that is unacceptable to them. What they aspire to is a shattered Iran, fragmented and at odds with itself.

America wants to neutralize Iran in order to limit China’s growing influence and weaken Russia. Iran currently acts as a buffer and supplies vital energy resources to China. For Israel, Iran obstructs its ambition for a so-called “Greater Israel.” Aware of Iran’s strength and resilience, Netanyahu has worked relentlessly to push America into confronting Iran on his country’s behalf.

China now sources almost all its oil from Iran, with Venezuela no longer a viable alternative. Should America succeed in cutting off Iran’s crude oil exports to China, the Land of the Dragon would lose a critical fuel supply that sustains its economy. Without it, China’s economic stability could face significant threats.

For these reasons, America and Israel—long-time Siamese twins with converging interests—have kept Iran in their sights. During the recent periods of unrest, Iran accused the CIA and Mossad of fomenting it, and both countries reportedly contemplated military action “to save Iranians” with the protests as an excuse. Following events in Venezuela involving Nicolás Maduro, Trump even considered a “limited” and “targeted” strike on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Although he publicly declared America to be “locked and loaded,” several factors restrained his actions.

One such factor was Iran’s disruption of internet services and the jamming of Elon Musk’s Starlink system, rendering GPS unreliable. The absence of satellite navigation and insider support could hinder the effective operation of American and Israeli aircraft and missiles, making them susceptible to easy neutralisation.

Another deterrent was Iran’s acquisition of advanced weaponry from China and Russia, as well as the testing of its own Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM). This proved Iran could hit back, raising the risk of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), recalling the Cold War.

There was also palpable fear in Tel Aviv. After Iranian missiles inflicted significant damage during the 12-day conflict last June, Netanyahu’s aircraft—the Wing of Zion—was reportedly flown to Crete, Greece, with some commentators suggesting he was on board. Israel was unprepared for a direct military confrontation with Iran, goading America, instead, into it. Instead, it favored indirect tactics, including fomenting internal unrest.

Reports indicate that most Gulf states, with the exception of the UAE, informed America that they would not permit the use of their bases for an attack on Iran. Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, also urged Trump to avoid military action.

These factors collectively compelled Trump to pause. Initially, he remarked that “they have stopped shooting people,” later adding that “they have stopped the killing of about 800 people,” the majority of whom were reportedly American and Israeli operatives.

Still, Iran must punish lawbreakers according to its laws—just as America, Israel, and all sovereign nations committed to the rule of law do. Failing to act would only embolden the saboteurs and invite other unpatriotic citizens to commit more destabilizing acts.

History is replete with examples of nations weakened by impunity. In Nigeria, people often forgive or even treat Boko Haram members and bandits better than their victims. Perpetrators are “rehabilitated,” while those who lost homes and loved ones are rarely compensated.

That is the civilian reality. Imagine the fate of soldiers, police, and security agents. I remember a harrowing video of a woman in Maiduguri, Borno State, accused—despite her denials—of being a DSS agent, brutally beheaded by Boko Haram. It was devastating.

But to appreciate the long-term planning of the concept the duo of Trump and Netanyahu represent, consider the recent “escape” of about 3,000 ISIS detainees from prisons run by American-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Syria and America’s reported attempt to relocate another 7,000 ISIS prisoners to Iraq, which borders Iran. This could be interpreted as laying the groundwork for a future proxy force to destabilize Iran and push for regime change or fragmentation.

Meanwhile, Trump, who claimed he wanted to help Iranians, recently warned that he would destroy the people if anything happened to him. He remarked, “If anything happens, they’re going to wipe [Iran] off the face of the earth,” and “I’ve left a notification for that.”

Neither Trump nor his ally, Netanyahu, backed down due to a desire for peace. Trump still wants to strike Iran because it is what Netanyahu seeks. Military action remains firmly on the table. They may not have been ready before, but preparations are clearly underway. US carrier groups, fighter jets, and command units—what Trump called “the Armada”—are moving closer, assembling enough firepower for air, sea, cyber, and special-forces operations designed to prevent Iran from mounting an adequate response. However, it could also be a show of force meant to intimidate Iran not to pass judgement on the 800 arrested agents.

However, US activist Calla Walsh captured their mindset succinctly when she said, “Israel (and America) doesn’t need you to like Israel; it only needs you to support them in destroying Iran.”

Others echo this warning, urging the Persians to remain vigilant, as these Siamese twin warmongers appear eager to strike—whether through the fangs of January, the scourge of February, or, at the latest, the ides of March.

Beyond open warfare, covert operations and crushing sanctions aimed to make Iranians suffer economically and so rise against their government; they want to isolate Iran globally. However, despite repeated provocations from both parties urging Iran to fire the first salvo, Iran has resisted taking the bait, remaining consistent with its policy of avoiding war. Yet its leaders have vowed to retaliate decisively if attacked.

The Foreign Ministry stated that Iran is prepared to respond “with everything we have.” President Masoud Pezeshkian warned on X that any American attack would provoke a “severe and regret-inducing” response. Yahya Rahim Safavi, adviser to Imam Khamenei, declared, “We are preparing for the final battle with Israel,” stressing that “we are in a war phase” with no ceasefire or agreements in place.

Major General Mohammad Pakpour, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reinforced the point Thursday, saying Iranian forces “have their hands on the trigger” and warned against miscalculation, citing lessons from June.

Next, we will examine the choices available for both sides and how a military confrontation might unfold. It is worth noting that Israel reportedly contemplated the use of nuclear weapons in its last war with Iran—a doctrine known as the Samson Option. Should such an incident occur, Israel would become only the second nation, after the United States in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, to deploy atomic weapons in warfare.

Lest I Forget

What is wrong with our politicians that they almost always fail the test of trust, or ‘amana,’ in Hausa? People who were literally licking the feet of governors turn against them the moment the governors elevate them to that seat.

God willing, we will examine how Governor Mai Mala Buni of Yobe State and Vice President Kashim Shettima are exceptional in maintaining trust and remaining loyal to their predecessors.

Hassan Gimba is the publisher and CEO of Neptune Prime.

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Calls Grow for Equal Treatment as Abducted Borno Pupils Remain Missing

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Calls Grow for Equal Treatment as Abducted Borno Pupils Remain Missing

Calls Grow for Equal Treatment as Abducted Borno Pupils Remain Missing

By Tada Jutha, Maiduguri

Concern is mounting in Borno State following what residents and civil society groups describe as a slow and inadequate federal response to the abduction of dozens of schoolchildren in Askira/Uba Local Government Area.

Community leaders, activists and political stakeholders have expressed frustration over the government’s handling of the incident, arguing that the kidnapping of pupils in the Northeast has not attracted the same level of attention and urgency seen in similar cases elsewhere in the country.

The controversy follows the abduction of dozens of primary and junior secondary school pupils from the Mussa community in Askira/Uba, allegedly by insurgents. Residents say families of the victims have been left anxious as they await concrete information on rescue efforts.

Speaking in Maiduguri on Monday, Chairman of the Borno State Civil Society Organisations, Abubakar Suleiman, criticised what he described as unequal treatment of victims of mass abductions across different parts of Nigeria.

According to him, while a recent kidnapping incident involving pupils and teachers in Oyo State attracted the immediate attention of top federal officials, communities in Borno affected by similar tragedies have not witnessed a comparable intervention.

Suleiman noted that several abduction incidents have occurred in parts of Borno in recent weeks, yet families and local communities have received little direct engagement from federal authorities.

He urged the government to intensify rescue operations and maintain regular communication with affected families.

“The parents deserve reassurance that everything possible is being done to secure the release of their children. They also deserve timely information about ongoing efforts,” he said.

A political analyst based in Borno, Abubakar Kareto, also expressed concern over what he described as disparities in official responses to security emergencies.

He observed that the attacks in Oyo and Askira/Uba reportedly occurred within the same period but generated markedly different levels of federal attention.

Kareto argued that every mass abduction, regardless of location, should receive the same level of urgency and deployment of security resources.

According to him, any perception of unequal treatment risks deepening feelings of neglect among communities already facing the challenges of insurgency and insecurity.

He called on President Bola Tinubu and security agencies to intensify intelligence gathering and military operations aimed at rescuing the abducted children and restoring public confidence.

“The safety of every Nigerian child must be treated as a national priority. Victims in the Northeast deserve the same commitment and urgency accorded to victims anywhere else in the country,” he said.

Also weighing in, President of the Borno South Youths Alliance Forum, Samaila Kaigama, appealed to political leaders and elected representatives from the state to become more vocal in advocating for affected communities.

He urged stakeholders to unite in pressing for stronger federal intervention, emphasising that the plight of abducted children should transcend political and regional considerations.

The incident has renewed concerns about the vulnerability of schools in rural communities, particularly in areas affected by insurgency. Security experts have repeatedly warned that educational institutions remain attractive targets for armed groups operating in parts of the Northeast.

As families continue to wait for positive news, residents say they expect both federal and state authorities to demonstrate greater commitment to securing the release of all those still in captivity and preventing future attacks on schools.

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Nigeria’s Security Depends on Empowering Youths — Gen. Buratai

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Nigeria’s Security Depends on Empowering Youths — Gen. Buratai

Nigeria’s Security Depends on Empowering Youths — Gen. Buratai

By Auwal Ahmad Umar

Former Chief of Army Staff Lt-Gen. Tukur Yusufu Buratai (rtd), has warned that Nigeria’s security and future stability may remain under threat unless the country deliberately invests in and empowers its youthful population.

the Gen. Buratai stated that at University of Ilorin while delivering a lecture  with titled “The Armed Forces of Nigeria and National Security: The Youth and National Security Aspirations”, Buratai said the intersection between youth development and national security has become critical to Nigeria’s survival amid rising insecurity across different parts of the country.

Quoting former United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the retired military officer said, “A nation’s security is only as strong as its commitment to its young people.”

He noted that insurgency, terrorism, cybercrime, separatist agitation, banditry, and organised criminal activities continue to challenge Nigeria’s unity and development, stressing that the country’s youthful population remains both its greatest strength and potential vulnerability.

“If neglected, this same demographic could become our greatest vulnerability. How effectively government at all levels and the Armed Forces engage, empower and integrate youths into national security frameworks will determine Nigeria’s trajectory towards stability or turmoil,” Buratai said.

The former army chief explained that the Armed Forces of Nigeria have evolved from a small colonial constabulary established in 1863 into a major institution responsible for defending the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Africa’s most populous nation.

According to him, the changing nature of security threats now requires a broader understanding of national security beyond military operations alone.

“Today, national security extends beyond merely defending territorial borders.” Cybersecurity, economic stability, climate risks, and intelligence coordination have become central to the survival of modern nations,” he stated.

Buratai observed that more than 60 per cent of Nigeria’s population falls within the youth category, making it necessary for government and security institutions to harness their creativity, patriotism, and innovation for national development.

He said frustrated youths often become targets for recruitment by criminal and extremist groups, while empowered youths could serve as defenders of peace, unity, and national stability.

The retired general also reviewed the historical role of the Armed Forces in the Nigerian Civil War, peacekeeping missions across Africa, and ongoing counter-insurgency operations within the country.

He identified Boko Haram and ISWAP insurgency in the North-East, banditry and mass kidnappings in the North-West and North-Central, separatist violence in the South-East, and oil theft in the South-South as major security concerns confronting Nigeria.

Buratai further warned that growing instability across the Sahel region, particularly in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has compounded Nigeria’s security challenges.

Drawing lessons from Colombia and Sri Lanka, he recommended a blend of military action, socio-economic reforms, intelligence-sharing, and community engagement as the most effective strategy for tackling insecurity.

“Military force alone cannot defeat an ideology. Nigeria must combine security operations with development, justice, inclusion, and opportunities for young people,” he said.

The former army chief proposed the recruitment of 50,000 youths annually into the Armed Forces over the next five years, the establishment of state intelligence centers for information sharing, and the introduction of civic security training for tertiary institution graduates.

He also advocated the creation of a Security Trust Fund to support military equipment procurement, personnel welfare, and youth employment within the security sector.

Buratai urged young Nigerians to see military service as a patriotic and noble responsibility.

“The country needs your brains, your strength and your courage. Nigeria’s security is a national project that requires the participation of every citizen, especially the youth,” he added.

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MDIF CEO Raises Concern Over Mental Strain on Aid Workers

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MDIF CEO Raises Concern Over Mental Strain on Aid Workers

MDIF CEO Raises Concern Over Mental Strain on Aid Workers

By Auwal Ahmad

The Chief Executive Officer of the Migration and Development Impact Foundation (MDIF), Margaret Ngozi Ukegbu, has expressed concern over the growing emotional and psychological pressure faced by humanitarian and non-governmental organisation (NGO) workers in Nigeria and called for stronger support systems to protect their mental well-being.

Ukegbu spoke during a training program organised for NGOs and civil society workers from Gombe, Bauchi, and Plateau States., in Jos on Wednesday, where participants received training in mental health awareness, financial resilience, employability, emotional intelligence, and workplace balance.

She said many aid workers spend years supporting vulnerable communities while neglecting their own emotional, psychological, and financial health.

“We are not asking people to leave their jobs or do anything dishonest. We aim to empower people to grow personally while remaining committed to their work,” she said.

According to her, humanitarian workers handling issues such as migration, child protection, climate change, mental health, and humanitarian crises often operate under intense pressure without adequate psychosocial support.

“These workers carry other people’s pain every day, yet many of them have no psychosocial support system. Some become overwhelmed to the point that it affects their family life, finances, and emotional stability,” she said.

Ukegbu explained that the training was designed to provide practical knowledge that would help participants improve their financial discipline, emotional wellbeing, and overall productivity.

She noted that MDIF, a Lagos-based organisation operating in the South-West and South-East, plans to expand its interventions to the North-Central and North-East regions.

The MDIF’s chief said her experience at the National Commission for Refugees, Migrants, and Internally Displaced Persons partly inspired the initiative.

According to her, officers involved in humanitarian operations were often left without emotional support despite regularly dealing with traumatic situations.

“We used to receive returning migrants from Libya, hear terrible stories, and see their condition, but there was nobody to support the officers emotionally. You had to bottle everything inside,” she recalled.

Ukegbu also said the organisation provides security awareness training for humanitarian workers; she noted that many unknowingly expose themselves to danger while carrying out humanitarian assignments.

On national unity, she urged Nigerians to avoid ethnic and regional divisions and support inclusive development across the country.

“Nigeria is one. If we truly love this country, then we must support one another regardless of region. We cannot isolate people because of insecurity narratives,” she said.

She added that MDIF hopes to extend its programs to states like Borno, Kebbi, and Katsina when resources become available.

Participants at the training described the programme as timely and impactful.

One of the participants, Ibrahim Yusuf, said the sessions improved his understanding of business opportunities, mental health, financial resilience, and employability.

“We always deal with vulnerable communities and forget to take care of our own mental health. This training helped us understand the importance of improving ourselves while strengthening service delivery,” he said.

Another participant, Jibirin Bappa, described the program as one of the most beneficial training sessions he had attended.

“It taught us that as carers and community leaders, we must first take care of ourselves before helping others,” he said.

 

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