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The Arbiter

Rule of Law, Nigeria’s only hope of survival (1)

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Rule of Law, Nigeria’s only hope of survival (1)

By Hassan Gimba

Originally published in December 2021, this article is being republished because its concerns about the rule of law, insecurity, and the fear ordinary Nigerians experience remain relevant today. It serves as a timely reminder of the urgent need to protect citizens, uphold justice, and restore peace and security across the country.

Our current situation of a glaring failure of the rule of law must disturb any Nigerian who has come of age. The average citizen today lives in fear. When you retire into your house, you pray to God to deliver you from evil marauders who have removed peace from the calmness of the night. When the sun rises, you again rely on God to protect you from those who have made the law their own.

In Nigeria today, the rule of law has taken flight. Charlatans carrying guns that are daily becoming accessible to any riff-raff who want to own any quantity can erect a checkpoint on any federal road and operate for hours, kidnapping, killing and maiming passengers. Sometimes they set cars on fire with commuters, comprising women, children, infants, and the elderly and sick, trapped inside.

They can walk for hours unhindered, despite our drones and Tucanos, with tens, sometimes hundreds, of their prisoners from the main road into the bushes. Many times, they videotape such operations, up to the torturing of their captives and send them to all to see on social media. They rape their female victims – single or married – irrespective of their age or physical condition. The unlucky men who tingle their fancies get sodomised, too. And nothing happens because the rule of law does not affect them.

Many of the women who make it out alive come out pregnant or, worst of all, with some diseases. Those “captured” with a heavy pregnancy that would not allow them to move quickly or far got shot dead. This scenario happened to Pharmacist Hannatu Mohammed in Zaria in August this year. Kidnappers killed her because she could not move fast enough because of her pregnancy. She left behind two children.

There was this story of a captive who gave birth to twins in the camp of these bandits. They threw the newborns to their dogs for breakfast. The woman went mad. Another case was that of a newborn who was fed sleeping pills once it started crying.

In all these cases and many more, reported and unreported, that cannot be catalogued here because of their number, the living victims and their families cry alone; friends and family mourn the dead. They receive nothing – no justice and no mention of compensation or even condolence – because those who should protect and care for them are engrossed in feeding their fantasies. The rule of law can go to blazes!

In November this year, gunmen raided the staff quarters of the University of Abuja and made it a hell for two hours. They abducted six people, including two professors, a deputy registrar and three family members. The Minister of the FCT, Muhammad Bello, however, told the university’s governing council that the crime was carried out to raise doubts about security in the nation’s capital and to attract publicity. How did he know that? Did he confer with the bandits, or confirm their motives? Another question: what are the other uncountable and routine crimes perpetrated daily in the country meant to achieve – like the raids on the Nigerian Defence Academy (NDA), police stations, prisons (I do not call them “Correctional” because I doubt if they have corrected anybody) and other government facilities?

What are the daily blockades of roads, killings, burning, maiming and kidnapping of passengers meant to achieve? What about the attack on the rail tracks, abduction of school children, raiding of airports and houses of individuals to kidnap – to achieve what?

It has now reached an unfortunate and unpardonable level that kidnappers negotiate terms of release with kidnapped victims’ loved ones. There are stories that even the military and paramilitary forces pay for their kidnapped members to be released. The forces of anarchy have cowed the enforcers of the rule of law.

Well, true or false, bandits who raid wherever they want and kidnap whoever they wish are now a government unto themselves. They collect taxes from farmers before the locals may till their farms. Farmers also pay “taxes” before they can harvest from their farms.

Nigeria’s situation fills all reasonable humans with dread. Last week, just when we were shocked at the unprovoked incineration of passengers on a bus, another sad news hit the airwaves. The people of Maza-Kuka in Ba’are village of Mashegu Local Government Area in Niger State were made to cry when 16 worshippers were shot dead while observing the early morning prayers in a mosque.

Without the rule of law, no nation can survive as an entity. All failed states are so because non-state actors have overwhelmed constituted authority.

Many can swear by whatever they worship; Nigeria is on the brink, and at any moment the nation can tip over. The search now is for who will pull us back. In this treatise, I will discuss this.

How did we find ourselves in this sorry pass? One school of thought believes our security forces are well below the required number and, therefore, overstretched in most cases. Others theorise they lack technological facilities, coupled with low motivation because of poor welfare.

But is it? Nigeria, with a population of about 200 million, has a force strength of close to 400,000. That is one police officer per 500, or 0.2 per cent of the populace. The United Nations’ (UN) standard for the police-to-people ratio is one police officer for every 450 citizens. Perhaps ours should be one law enforcement officer for 45 people.

Togo, with a population of 8 million, has 4,000 police officers. That is one police officer per 2,000, or 0.05 per cent of the population, but God help you if you break any law in the country. Benin Republic, with a populace of 11.5 million, has 10,000 police. That is 0.08 per cent, or one police officer for every 1,150 citizens. But try to break the law in that country and see. These are just two West African countries that have shown the rule of law can thrive, not because security forces watch the population eagle-eyed.

Yes, our police lack the technological edge to deal with modern crimes, and, worst of all, their welfare and training are not the best. Their salary is paltry, and, even at that, they don’t always get paid when due.

But the failure of the rule of law here is not so much about the number of our security agents as about their low morale, their poor application of themselves to duty – very like all public service employees, disruption of morals in the citizenry, and the historical failure to punish offenders. Above all is the dearth of a responsive leadership to bind us into a nation of law-abiding, love-your-brother people.

Therefore, we can say moral decadence is at the root of our problems as a nation. However, the right leadership can correct it. We shall look at this. We shall also look at how failing to punish criminals has affected our collective security and the way out in our next instalments.

Hassan Gimba, ANIPR, is the Publisher and CEO of Neptune Prime.
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The Arbiter

Will the Rainbow’s Collision with Governors Sound the Death Knell for APC?

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Will the Rainbow’s Collision with Governors Sound the Death Knell for APC?
Nyesom Wike is not a man who shies away from any fight. And controversies. So far, he has won them all. Well, almost all.
The PDP held a national convention to nominate its presidential candidate for the 2023 general elections on 28 and 29 May 2022 at the National Stadium.
Wike was so confident he would win that he said he would behave a certain way if he lost, apparently assuming that would make those he believed he would defeat adopt the same line. He promised to support “whoever emerged” among the aspirants.
When former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a veteran of the game, dusted him 371 votes to 237, Wike was flustered.
However, he still sought the vice presidency, which was also denied him. That led him to form the G5, or Integrity Group, with four other governors to oppose Atiku’s candidacy.
The members of the so-called Integrity Group were all PDP governors: Nyesom Wike of Rivers State, Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, Samuel Ortom of Benue State, Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia State and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State.
But they, led by Wike, had to find excuses to work against their own party. They demanded the resignation of the PDP National Chairman, Iyorchia Ayu, arguing that both the national chairman and the presidential candidate came from the northern region, violating the party’s convention of regional balance.
Now, removing Ayu would have brought its own challenges because the party structure was set up in such a way that the whole structure would have had to be restructured. Either way, the PDP would have walked into the trap the group had set.
They got the excuse they wanted when the PDP ignored their demands. Individual members leaned towards different opposing candidates or worked against the PDP’s mainstream campaign, significantly fracturing the party’s chances in the 2023 election.
As Wike himself recently confessed, they did that to weaken Atiku’s chances. He said that in Benue, for instance, they told Ortom to work for Obi, among other things.
After the elections and securing a “lucrative” ministry, as it is called in Nigerian parlance, where he could dole out patronage, he dismembered the PDP, sent almost all its founding members packing, and held sway as the numero uno — or Alpha and Omega — whose word must be law.
He drove away Siminalayi Fubara, a man he made governor, who later decamped to the All Progressives Congress (APC). He followed him there and refused him a return ticket.
Seeing how he brought the different parties in Rivers State under an arrangement he calls the Rainbow Coalition, he thought of replicating it at the national level.
But here is the idea: to make all the parties work for his principal, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, while he may let the states know whom to support for certain offices.
Wike is a man who enjoys the confidence, and perhaps the trust, of Mr President. Since he has not been called to order, then perhaps…
But this must have alarmed the APC governors, who know what Wike can do. Surely, this Rainbow whatever will no doubt diminish their influence. It will push them away from the centre.
And just as the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) under Shehu Shagari sent “liaison officers” to the states, Wike may send “Rainbow officers” to take over campaigns in the states.
This is because he is trying to poison the President’s mind, saying governors cannot be trusted to deliver victory to him. Only he can; only he knows how.
And so, the governors quickly met.
After the meeting, the APC Governors’ Forum Chairman, Imo State Governor Hope Uzodinma, read a communique saying:
“The APC Governors Forum unanimously resolved that its members will not participate in, support or endorse any alliance or political arrangement capable of undermining the re-election of Mr President, weakening the APC or adversely affecting any candidate of the party at all levels.
“In other words, the forum has no intention to support any candidate at any level that is not an APC candidate because our party is sponsoring our candidates who are contesting the election.”
Then the party’s National Working Committee, after meeting in Maiduguri, also declared that it would work for APC candidates at all levels, opposing the idea being touted by Wike’s Rainbow Coalition.
But Wike’s push will not only push away the governors; it will also squeeze out the AbdulAzeez Yari Presidential Campaign Council.
However, how likely is it that Tinubu will be re-elected when a rainbow meant to be someone’s personal future political vehicle muzzles out his governors and campaign council?
While the individual interventionist #TMG may seem to be working for Atiku, the Wike intervention may not achieve its aim.
But will there be gold at the end of this Rainbow, or will the expected rain dry up?
Some political pundits believe Wike is working for his relevance post-2027, as he will have his handpicked people become governors and members of the National and State Assemblies. This coalition, they argue, could do his bidding in 2031.
Or so he believes.

Lest I Forget

The stampede at the Minna Government House, where almost 10 people lost their lives struggling to get ₦5,000, was unfortunate. How can such an unorganised event be allowed to take place in a Government House?
Such events are better organised at polling-unit levels to support wider distribution and better organisation, rather than in a state Government House.
It is all the more unfortunate that this is coming on the heels of the massacre of over 30 indigenes in the name of “illegal mining”.
And still, from Minna, the Power State, a living Head of State was used by a foreign hospital to advertise its expertise in kneecap replacement!
Even though the accompanying melody is sweet, it was no doubt an insult to him and to all our leaders who have failed to provide good healthcare facilities in Nigeria. But worst of all, it is a collective insult to Nigeria and all of us Nigerians to see our Head of State used as an object of advertisement for a procedure he paid for.
Okocha, Kanu and others get paid to do their Bet9ja stuff, after all!
Hassan Gimba, ANIPR, is the Publisher and CEO of Neptune Prime.
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US-Israeli War on Iran (4): Wetin be Nigeria’s Own?

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US-Israeli War on Iran (4): Wetin be Nigeria’s Own?

 

By Hassan Gimba

On Thursday, July 30, 2026, Saudi Arabia announced the formation of a 14-member Multinational Maritime Defence Coalition, ostensibly to guarantee freedom of navigation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden. Its practical objective is to break the Houthi naval blockade of Saudi Arabia declared on July 20.

The founding members are Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, Egypt, Pakistan, Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, Bangladesh and, yes, Nigeria.

Turkey, which has one of Europe’s largest militaries, brings NATO membership, a powerful navy and a strong economy. Pakistan, a nuclear power, is also being courted by the United States for its strategic importance in the Global South. Nigeria, meanwhile, may be regarded as the coalition’s African representative.

But the Houthis have survived a decade of Saudi-led military operations, including years of airstrikes and a naval blockade, without capitulating.

A maritime coalition unwilling to conduct effective ground operations in Yemen faces the same strategic limitations that previous anti-Houthi arrangements encountered. Saudi Arabia previously recruited black fighters from Sudan, only for many to be killed in a conflict that had little to do with them.

Even naval escorts and convoy systems cannot guarantee the safety of ships. The shore-based missiles and drones used by the Houthis cannot be neutralised from the sea alone.

The Houthis have also demonstrated their ability to challenge superior military powers, with the US military losing F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jets and MQ-9 Reaper drones during operations in the region. Washington attributed some losses to accidents, mechanical failures and operational pressures rather than direct Houthi action.

Iran understands this dynamic. That may explain why Tehran’s response to the coalition appears to be one of patience rather than alarm. The Houthis survived the first Saudi-led coalition; Iran will calculate their chances against a second.

The proposed coalition could, however, be stillborn. Several countries that might be expected to support Saudi Arabia have either declined to join or expressed reservations. The UAE and Oman, for instance, have not signed the founding statement.

The United States has also rejected Saudi Arabia’s proposal, while European countries have been unable to establish a similar coalition. Yemen’s Houthi-linked Al-Masirah has described the proposed alliance as incapable of breaking the blockade or protecting targets within the range of Yemeni missiles and drones.

Even the British shipping publication Lloyd’s List reportedly questioned the coalition’s effectiveness, describing it as more of a political message than a naval force capable of changing the security situation in the region.

But where does Nigeria fit into all this?

Nigeria does have a five-year defence pact with Saudi Arabia, signed on December 9, 2025, covering military cooperation, intelligence sharing and counter-terrorism efforts. But can Nigeria mobilise Africa, or even West Africa, behind such an undertaking?

Nigeria is still battling Boko Haram, banditry, kidnappings and other armed groups at home. What would it mean for the country to confront an adversary whose missiles and drones have challenged the military capabilities of the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia?

Saudi Arabia has American military bases, sophisticated weapons and enormous financial resources, yet it has struggled to defeat the Houthis. What, then, is Nigeria’s own there?

Nigeria has not even dredged the Niger River, yet it wants to help protect the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. What is Nigeria’s own there?

I would not object if Nigeria had derived substantial benefits from its relationship with Saudi Arabia. But what exactly have we received?

For instance, Nigerians do not obtain Saudi visas on arrival, except under privileged circumstances involving holders of Schengen, UK or US visas.

The King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre has conducted periodic free medical missions in Nigeria, including eye-care programmes under Saudi Noor, specialised procedures such as hearing implants at the National Hospital, Abuja, and cardiac interventions in Kano. These, however, are temporary humanitarian programmes conducted in partnership with Nigerian public hospitals rather than permanent Saudi government facilities.

The Saudi German Hospital network also has a presence in Nigeria. Still, it is a private healthcare group founded by the Batterjee family and is not owned or operated by the Saudi government.

Saudi Arabia has supported the construction of numerous mosques in Nigeria through non-governmental organisations, royal donors and religious bodies. But where are the Saudi-funded hospitals, primary, secondary or tertiary institutions dedicated to engineering, medicine and modern sciences?

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has funded hospitals, schools and other infrastructure projects across several African countries. These include hospitals and schools in Zambia, a $75 million Mother and Child Referral Hospital in Guinea, the rehabilitation of the King Khalid University Hospital in Bujumbura, Burundi, and an 800-bed specialised gynaecological and paediatric hospital in Lusaka.

The Saudi government has also funded the $50 million Riyadh Referral Hospital in Sierra Leone and invested $28 million in regional public schools in Niger Republic. It has built a scientific secondary school and a higher college for teacher preparation in Benin Republic, with similar projects reported in Mozambique, Burkina Faso, Malawi, Senegal and Cameroon.

Yet none of these countries has been called upon to help Saudi Arabia fight the Houthis.

Perhaps that was partly what Burkina Faso’s President Ibrahim Traoré had in mind when he reportedly declined a Saudi offer to build 200 mosques and instead requested investments in schools, hospitals and job-creating infrastructure. He argued that Burkina Faso already had enough underutilised mosques and wanted the funding redirected towards vocational centres, hospitals and other development projects.

Saudi Arabia has enormous resources with which to entice countries to support its strategic interests. But there would be no need for all this brouhaha if Riyadh stopped doing the bidding of the United States and Israel, eased the restrictions imposed on Yemen and allowed the Yemeni people to breathe.

Then, to us: What is Nigeria’s “own” in fighting the Houthis for Saudi Arabia?

What have the Houthis done to Nigeria?

This is a fight we know little about, a conflict that does not concern us directly. Before committing Nigerian resources, personnel and lives to it, perhaps the government should first answer this simple question in pidgin English: Wetin be Nigeria’s own for di mata?

Concluded.

Hassan Gimba, ANIPR, is the Publisher and CEO of Neptune Prime.

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Of banditry and a shared sovereignty (3)

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Of banditry and a shared sovereignty (3)

Of banditry and a shared sovereignty (3)

By Hassan Gimba

This is the concluding part of this series. The first two editions were published two weeks ago. Although the article was originally written in 2022, its message remains as timely and relevant today as it was then. With insecurity continuing to ravage every region of the country, leaving citizens in constant fear and uncertainty, the issues it raises remain urgent and worthy of renewed attention.

Last week, they attacked an estate within Abuja. Gunmen, bandits, Boko Haram, those who “drag” sovereignty with Nigeria, attacked Genuine Estate, within the vicinity of Gwarimpa, Nigeria’s (some accounts say south of the Sahara’s) largest housing estate. They did this undisturbed and calmly, between 1 and 4 am on Sunday. The police said it was a robbery. Residents, however, said they kidnapped some of their people. Now, we all know that robbers hardly take prisoners. It is now left for people to believe who they want to believe.

But based on precedent, I will want to believe the residents because the police, in more than one case, do not say what we know is the truth. Perhaps, for security reasons.

On Tuesday, May 17, an explosion rocked Winners, a nursery and primary school in the Sabon Gari area of Kano metropolis, in which buildings were destroyed, and about nine people were killed. The police told us it was a gas explosion. A week later, they changed the story: they said an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) caused it, and that they had arrested two people.

However, this doublespeak has become the norm with our government and its agencies while marauders keep terrorising the nation with unperturbed impunity.

We have always seized the opportunity to point out that apart from other parts of the country, “Abuja, the nation’s capital, is itself not exempt. Bandits operating in Niger State to the West, Kogi to the South, Kaduna to the North, and Nasarawa to the East have surrounded Abuja, and there is a need for a clinical onslaught against them. The Fulani settlements in these areas have to be forensically combed. Quite a few of the rugas around Kuje, Lugbe, and close to the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport are alleged to be used by bandits to store weapons.”

Within the town itself, you move at your own risk because hoodlums have taken over major spots. Robbery attacks are recurring themes in dark places, especially on bridges, in wooded spots, and at pedestrian crossings. The ever-busy Apo-Maitama expressway, pedestrian bridges, and roundabouts at Area One and Wuse Market, and from Zone 7 down to Berger and up to the Abuja-Kubwa-Kaduna expressway, are among the major areas frequented by criminal elements. From City Gate to Gwagwalada is another dangerous habitat for these criminal elements.

The southern part of Nigeria, too, has its share of warlords. Just as the North is in the grip of terrorists wrongly addressed as bandits, the South West was on the verge of being made ungovernable by a man called Sunday Igboho. He determined who lives there or not.

While Sunday Igboho in the South West has been tamed, all thanks to the Benin Republic authorities, the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and its armed wing, the Eastern Security Network (ESN), are still strong in the South East.

The South West, which is the most organised geopolitical zone in the country, is now tame, unlike most of the North and South East.

Apart from the killings of indigenes, termed Sabo (for saboteur) and non-indigenes, mostly from the North, there is a lot of propaganda – and insults – coming out from the South East. Some say that’s because they want “independence”, and others say it’s because they want the presidency. Whichever, their method is the wrong one. You can’t fight everyone and yet want them to consider you. Insults, blackmail and threats to life are their major weapons. I pity the judge handling the case of Nnamdi Kanu.

Well, all the happenings in the various regions of the country that have made the Nigerian state share sovereignty with non-state actors are because of the authorities’ inability to punish lawbreakers. Whoever committed whatever crime must not go unpunished.

The way it is now, anything can happen. The most abominable things can occur at any time. While the security agencies are overwhelmed, crime news, too, overwhelms newsmen, so that a lot goes unreported for want of space or time. The sad narrative is becoming the norm. And whenever the President’s spokespersons deem it fit to make any comment, it is the usual “condemnation”. Perhaps they do not know that you condemn the actions of those whose condemnation will hurt, not those who are competing with you for sovereignty.

The president usually ends up with an infuriating, half-hearted, lukewarm order to the security forces to fish out the perpetrators or to move to “the theatre of war”. We have seen how, on more than one occasion, he gave that order to service chiefs. Without hearing a counter order, they would be back in Abuja, and it would be business as usual, only for something to happen for him to renew the ineffective order.

Many security experts believe that the people have to take back their lands by themselves if such a government response to crime continues.

On January 3, 2022, writing on this page under the headline ‘Banditry and our quest for leadership’, we observed that: “One solution is for the government to organise a people’s militia that will flush out all those marauders. It can encourage each local government to muster at least 5,000 of its youth who will be trained to confront the bandits. The Nigerian government should transform the war against the bandits into a people’s war for self-defence by training and arming these youths. We must take the battle to every inch of the space occupied by the bandits. Possibly, all settlements in the bush should be cleared and moved to the main roads.

“That strategy proved successful in both Iraq and Syria. But it is not only in Iraq or Somalia. Here in Nigeria, some communities have stood eyeball to eyeball with bandits and insurgents and, as a result, found themselves some peace. Biu in Borno State and Azare in Bauchi State readily come to mind.

“When Boko Haram members set the people of Biu in their sights, killing them arbitrarily, the elders met and decided to “kill the enemy within”. Known community members who aided the terrorists were arrested in a sting operation and summarily executed. Extrajudicial, of course, but it was a period of war, and self-survival was paramount. Putting sentiment aside, parents gave up their sons, friends pointed at friends, and all culprits were dealt with. Boko Haram chiefs had to send a delegation to the town seeking a truce. Since then, Biu found peace as Boko Haram never attacked them again, leaving them in peace while other northeastern towns whose people cringed in fear have known no respite from Boko Haram.”

This is also what happened in Maiduguri, the capital of Borno State. Tired of being at the mercy of Boko Haram and being at the receiving end of soldiers’ mop-up operations, the youths, backed by elders and approved by the government and with support from the army, formed what came to be known as the Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF) for short. They drove the insurgents, false jihadists, out of the towns and into the bushes.

I foresee this happening also in the South East. The people will rise to take back their lives. The hurtful sit-at-home orders and the barbarous threat of IPOB/ESN hovering over them like the Sword of Damocles will push them to shake off the fear of their tormentors.

Fighting insecurity and the looming anarchy is too serious to be left in the hands of those who think they are safe and unassailable.

Concluded

Hassan Gimba, ANIPR, is the Publisher and CEO of Neptune Prime.

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