Column
Nigerian Opposition: What You Have to Do
Nigerian Opposition: What You Have to Do
By Prince Charles Dickson PhD
“And Jesus said to Judas… what you are going to do, do quickly.”
There is a hard, almost rude lesson in that line. History does not wait for the timid to finish their committee meeting. Politics, especially Nigerian politics, is not kind to hesitation dressed as strategy. It rewards those who understand timing, nerve, structure, and the brutal arithmetic of power. That is where the Nigerian opposition now stands: not at the edge of impossibility, but at the edge of urgency.
The first truth is the one opposition politicians do not enjoy hearing at rallies where microphones are loud and introspection is scarce. They are not getting it right. The evidence is not only in Tinubu’s strength, but in their own disorder. INEC said on February 5, 2026, that there were now 21 registered political parties and warned that persistent internal leadership crises within parties pose a serious threat to democratic consolidation. Eight days later, the commission formally released the notice and timetable for the 2027 general elections. In other words, this is no longer the season of abstract grumbling. The whistle has gone. The race is live.
Yet the opposition often behaves like students who entered the examination hall with righteous anger but forgot their pens. Too much of its energy is spent on lamentation, rumours, courtroom oxygen, personality feuds, and that old Nigerian hobby of mistaking noise for architecture. You cannot defeat an incumbent machine by forming a WhatsApp coalition of wounded egos and calling it national salvation. Voters may clap for drama, but they still ask the unromantic question: who is in charge, what is the plan, and why should we trust you with the keys?
Now comes the more uncomfortable truth. The opposition is not facing an ordinary incumbent. It is facing Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a man whose political DNA was forged in opposition. He is not merely benefiting from power; he understands opposition as craft, pressure, infiltration, timing, persistence, and theatre. In his June 12, 2025 Democracy Day speech, he taunted rivals by saying it was “a pleasure to witness” their disarray, while also reminding Nigerians that he once stood almost alone against an overbearing ruling machine. This was not casual banter. It was a warning shot from a politician who knows both the grammar of resistance and the machinery of incumbency.
That is why copying Tinubu’s old template will not be enough. Yes, the coalition instinct is understandable. In July 2025, major opposition figures including Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi aligned under the ADC banner, presenting themselves as a bulwark against one-party drift, with David Mark as interim chairman. But here is the problem: Tinubu’s own coalition history worked not simply because men gathered in one room and glared at the ruling party. It worked because there was a disciplined merger logic, state-level anchoring, message coordination, and a ruthless understanding of elite bargaining. What the present opposition sometimes offers instead is photocopy politics with low toner: a coalition of convenience trying to frighten a man who practically wrote the Nigerian handbook on political accommodation, defection management, and patient conquest.
This is also why the opposition’s moral complaint, though not baseless, cannot be its only language. Yes, concerns about democratic shrinkage are real. Tinubu himself publicly denied that Nigeria is moving toward a one-party state, even as defections from opposition parties to the APC intensified and his own party welcomed them. But to say “democracy is in danger” is not yet the same thing as building a democratic alternative. Nigerians do not eat constitutional anxiety for breakfast. They want a credible opposition that can protect pluralism and still explain food prices, jobs, security, power supply, transport costs, and what exactly it would do on Monday morning after taking office.
On the government’s side, the picture is mixed enough to make both triumphalism and apocalypse look unserious. Reuters reported this week that the World Bank expects Nigeria’s economy to grow by about 4.2% in 2026, with external buffers improving and the debt-to-GDP ratio falling for the first time in a decade. Inflation had eased to 15.06% in February from roughly 33% in late 2024. Those are not imaginary numbers, and any fair-minded analysis must admit that Tinubu’s reforms have altered the macroeconomic conversation. But the same report warned that the Iran war has pushed fuel prices up by more than 50%, with obvious consequences for transport, food, and household pain. Add the continuing insecurity, underscored again this week by the killing of a Nigerian army general in Borno, and the government begins to look like a man who has repaired the roof but left half the house still flooding. That is not collapse. It is not command either. It is meandering reform under political stress.
So what must the opposition do, and do quickly? First, it must stop making Tinubu the only subject of the campaign. Anti-Tinubu is not a manifesto. It is a mood. Moods trend; structures win. Second, it must settle leadership questions early and publicly, because no voter wants to hire a rescue team still fighting over the steering wheel. Third, it needs an issue coalition, not just an elite coalition. Security, inflation, youth jobs, electricity, federalism, and institutional reform must become a coherent national offer, not a buffet of press conference talking points. Fourth, it must build from the states upward. Presidential romance without subnational organisation is political karaoke: loud, emotional, and usually off-key by the second verse.
Fifth, it must look seriously at the legal terrain. The Electoral Act 2026 has made party organisation even more central. PLAC notes that the new law tightens party registration rules, removes deemed registration, expands INEC’s regulatory discretion, and preserves the fact that candidates still need political parties as the vehicle for contesting most elective offices because independent candidacy is not permitted. In plain language, parties matter even more now. A fragmented opposition is therefore not just aesthetically untidy. It is strategically suicidal.
Still, there are dangers in the opposite direction too. A desperate anti-Tinubu mega-bloc could become a cargo truck of incompatible ambitions. If all it offers is the promise to defeat one man, it may reproduce the same habits it condemns once power arrives. Nigeria does not need a ruling party so swollen that democracy gasps for air. But it also does not need an opposition whose only ideology is turn-by-turn revenge. The health of democracy lies somewhere between monopoly and mob. It requires competition with content, not merely competition with bitterness. Tinubu himself, in that same June 12 speech, defended multiparty politics even while mocking the opposition’s disorder. That irony should not be wasted. He has thrown them both an insult and an assignment.
So, yes, the opposition is right to worry. But worry is not strategy. Outrage is not organisation. Coalition is not coherence. And history is not sentimental. The man they are up against is ruthless, seasoned, and intimate with the dark arts of democratic combat. He knows the game. Some of his opponents are still learning the rules from old newspaper cuttings.
Which brings us back to the scripture. What you are going to do, do quickly. Not recklessly. Not hysterically. Quickly. Settle your house. Name your purpose. Offer something fresher than recycled indignation. Build a machine that is not merely anti-Tinubu but pro-Nigeria in a way ordinary Nigerians can feel in their pockets and in their pulse. Otherwise, the opposition will keep arriving at battle dressed in borrowed armour, only to discover that the tailor works for the man they came to unseat—May Nigeria win!
Guest Column
Local Government Autonomy: Nigeria’s Missing Weapon Against Insecurity and Banditry
Local Government Autonomy: Nigeria’s Missing Weapon Against Insecurity and Banditry
Striking the Balance
It’s Time We Invite the U.S. to Set Up a Military Base in Nigeria
It’s Time We Invite the U.S. to Set Up a Military Base in Nigeria.
By MS Abubakar, PhD, CAS
“Niger chose anger. Mali chose Wagner. Nigeria must choose a strategy.”
As a Northerner, I must confess a contradiction. When French and U.S. troops withdrew from Niger Republic in 2024, I celebrated on my street in Abuja. Like millions across West Africa, I had condemned the idea of a new foreign base in Northern Nigeria. My fears were not invented. They were fed by a powerful narrative: that France, in particular, orchestrates instability in the Sahel to protect uranium interests and CFA franc dominance. In Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali, the junta and the youth believe France sponsors or tolerates jihadists to justify its presence. I believed it too.
But conviction without evidence is dangerous. So, I asked harder questions.
1. The “Foreign Base = Instability” Myth Doesn’t Hold Up
America operates over 700 military facilities worldwide. In Africa alone it has Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti, bases in Kenya, Ghana, and drone operations in Niger before 2024. Did Kenya become a failed state? Did Ghana lose its democracy? No. In fact, Ghana ranks higher than Nigeria on the Global Peace Index and Human Development Index. Kenya, despite Al-Shabaab threats, has maintained state capacity and elections.
The common factor is not the base. It is governance. Where institutions are strong, foreign security cooperation is managed. Where institutions are weak, any presence—French, Russian, or American—becomes a political football.
2. Our Problem is Structural, Not Foreign.
Banditry in Zamfara, Boko Haram in Borno, ISWAP in Lake Chad, and kidnapping along the Abuja-Kaduna corridor are not imported problems. They are Nigerian problems with Nigerian roots: endemic poverty, where 63% live in multidimensional poverty per NBS, exclusion of rural communities from basic services, low HDI, ungoverned spaces, and porous borders the size of Western Europe.
No foreign soldier can fix bad governance. But a foreign base with ISR drones, satellite intelligence, and logistics can degrade the killers while we fix the system. That is the distinction I missed in 2024.
3. The Wagner Experiment in Mali Proved the Point
After expelling France, Mali invited Russia’s Wagner Group. Three years later, attacks increased, 300+ civilians were killed in Moura, and Wagner became accused of human rights abuses. If Russia had the capacity to stabilise the Sahel, Mali would be proof. It is not.
America brings something different: not just guns, but integrated intelligence, airlift, MEDEVAC, and training. The U.S. Africa Command’s “by, with, and through” doctrine means they build local capacity. That is what Nigeria needs now.
4. Our Military is Brave, But Overstretched
I say these words with respect: the Nigerian Armed Forces are arguably the third most powerful in Africa. Our soldiers have fought in ECOMOG, Sudan, and Somalia and against Boko Haram for 15 years. Their courage is legendary.
“Courage without equipment is martyrdom. Our soldiers deserve partners, not just praise.”
But courage without equipment is martyrdom. We have lost senior, serving, and retired officers—generals and colonels—to ambushes and IEDs. That tells you the enemy has better ISR and night-fighting capacity in some theaters. Our air force flies sorties, but lacks persistent drone coverage. Our army clears territory but cannot “hold” due to logistics gaps. A U.S. base can fill those specific gaps without commanding our troops.
5. Sovereignty is Negotiated, Not Surrendered
The fear of “neo-colonialism” is valid. But sovereignty is not an all-or-nothing idea. Japan hosts U.S. bases yet remains sovereign and industrialized. Germany does too. The key is a Status of Forces Agreement negotiated by Nigerians, for Nigerians. Terms can include: Nigerian command over operations, no unilateral raids, joint patrols only, technology transfer, and mandatory training of NAF and NA personnel.
“Sovereignty is negotiated, not surrendered. A base is a lease, not an occupation.”
A base is not an occupation. It is a lease. We lease land to MTN and Airtel. We can lease a corner of the north to a partner who helps us kill terrorists faster.
6. There Are Economic and Strategic Upsides
Beyond security, a U.S. base means infrastructure: better airstrips, hospitals, roads, and skilled jobs for locals. It means Nigeria becomes a hub for Sahel intelligence. That raises our diplomatic weight in ECOWAS and the AU. Currently, after Niger’s exit, the U.S. is looking for a reliable anchor state in the region. Why shouldn’t that be Nigeria?
The Call
I was wrong in 2024. Expelling partners did not bring peace to the Sahel. It created vacuums. Nigeria cannot afford a vacuum.
So, I am calling on fellow Nigerians, especially Northerners like me, to reconsider. Let us pressure the National Assembly and the presidency to open talks with Washington on a limited, transparent US military presence. Let us demand oversight, not rejection.
The Sahel is burning. Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali chose anger. Nigeria must choose strategy.
We should let the U.S. set up a military base in Nigeria to end the bloodshed, not because we’re weak.
Nigeria must not bleed alone when help is available.
Guest Column
Sokoto: Gov. Aliyu’s New Harvest Of Projects
Sokoto: Gov. Aliyu’s New Harvest Of Projects
By Umar Yusuf
In politics, some leaders discuss their plans, while others quietly get to work. The latter category often allows projects and results to speak louder than press statements, political advertisements and endless public relations exercises.
Since the emergence of the Governor Ahmed Aliyu-led administration, commissioning ceremonies—whether for completed projects or the flag-off of new ones—have become a recurring feature of governance in Sokoto State. As the state once again enters another round of project commissioning activities this June, it becomes increasingly clear that Governor Ahmed Aliyu Sokoto is determined to reinforce a governing philosophy that has become synonymous with his administration: promises made must be pursued and delivered.
The ceremonies scheduled across different parts of the state are not isolated events. These ceremonies are part of a broader continuum of infrastructural renewal that has defined the administration since Governor Aliyu assumed office nearly three years ago.
To appreciate the significance of the projects currently being commissioned, one must first recall the circumstances under which the present administration came into office.
At the time Governor Aliyu took over the reins of leadership, many sectors of public life in Sokoto State required urgent intervention. Concerns exist across education, healthcare, transportation, housing, and rural development. Yet perhaps no challenge was as visible and as painful to ordinary citizens as the crisis surrounding potable water supply.
For many residents of the Sokoto metropolis and surrounding communities, access to water had become both difficult and expensive. Families spent considerable portions of their income purchasing water from vendors. What should ordinarily have been a basic social service had become a daily struggle.
Recognising the importance of water for public welfare, Governor Aliyu moved swiftly. He showed from the onset that he had no intention of treating water scarcity as a routine administrative challenge. To his government, water was an emergency requiring immediate and sustained intervention.
Massive investments were directed toward the rehabilitation and expansion of water schemes throughout the state. Ageing facilities were revived, abandoned projects were revisited, and new infrastructure was introduced to improve distribution. Projects such as the rehabilitation of the Old Airport Water Scheme, the Tamaje Water Scheme, and other strategic water facilities helped restore supplies to many communities that had endured years of shortages.
Today, even critics of the administration acknowledge the significant improvements in the water situation compared to previous conditions. The turnaround has not only reduced hardship for residents but has also restored confidence in the government’s capacity to respond effectively to public needs.
Water, however, represents only one chapter of a much broader story.
Over the last three years, the Ahmed Aliyu administration has embarked on an ambitious program of infrastructural development that touches virtually every sector of governance. Across the state, roads such as the Mabera-Mani Road, the Gawon Nama Axis, and several township roads have been constructed or rehabilitated, improving mobility and commercial activities.
Healthcare: Hospitals and primary care centres have received upgrades, equipment, and rehabilitation work aimed at improving service delivery. Educational institutions have similarly benefited from renovation projects, the provision of learning facilities, and investments intended to improve the learning environment.
The administration has also pursued housing projects, including the ongoing construction of hundreds of housing units for civil servants and vulnerable groups. Agricultural support programmes, youth empowerment initiatives and interventions targeted at stimulating local economic activities have equally featured prominently within the government’s development agenda.
What is perhaps most remarkable is the geographical spread of these interventions. Rather than concentrating development exclusively within the Sokoto metropolis, the government has consistently sought to extend projects into local government areas and rural communities.
This approach reflects an understanding that development is meaningful only when it reaches the people wherever they reside.
It is against this backdrop that the current round of commissioning activities should be viewed.
Last Friday’s commissioning of the Illela Jumu’at Mosque was more than a ceremonial event. It also provided an opportunity to reflect on the administration’s third anniversary and the progress recorded thus far.
The choice of Illela itself is significant. Situated along the border corridor, the town occupies an important position within the state’s commercial and social landscape. Investments in the area therefore carry implications not only for local residents but also for regional economic activities and cross-border trade.
Today, attention shifts to another important milestone with the commissioning of 100 housing units for internally displaced individuals in Illela Local Government Area.
At a time when insecurity has displaced thousands of citizens across different parts of Northern Nigeria, housing interventions targeted at vulnerable populations deserve recognition.
Providing shelter is not merely about constructing buildings. It’s about restoring dignity, rebuilding lives and creating conditions for displaced families to start over.
The decision to invite Professor Babagana Umara Zulum, Governor of Borno State, to perform the commissioning is equally symbolic.
Governor Zulum has earned national recognition for his commitment to rebuilding communities affected by insurgency. His participation underscores the importance of collaborative approaches to addressing displacement and humanitarian challenges.
Beyond the housing project, Professor Zulum will also perform the foundation-laying ceremony for the Illela International Market.
This project may ultimately prove to be one of the most economically consequential initiatives of the administration.
Markets are more than places where goods exchange hands. They are engines of local economies. They create jobs, stimulate investments, attract traders, and expand commercial opportunities in their surrounding communities.
Given Illela’s strategic location as a gateway community to the Republic of Niger, an ultramodern international market possesses the potential to transform trade activities while strengthening Sokoto State’s position within regional commerce. The benefits could extend far beyond local government boundaries.
The following day will witness another housing initiative in Rabah Local Government Area, where the foundation stone for an additional 100 housing units for internally displaced individuals will be laid.
The project demonstrates that the administration’s housing interventions are components of a wider policy framework aimed at social welfare, community rehabilitation and inclusive development.
Then comes the commissioning of the Mana Water Scheme on June 18, to be performed by the governor of Kano State, Abba Kabir Yusuf.
For some observers, the commissioning of another water project may appear routine. In reality, it is anything but routine when viewed against the backdrop of the severe water challenges that existed before Governor Aliyu assumed office.
Water remains one of the clearest indicators of governmental responsiveness. Every new scheme commissioned translates into reduced hardship for households, improved sanitation, better public health outcomes and enhanced economic productivity.
The Mana Water Scheme therefore represents another important step in consolidating gains already recorded within the sector.
The commissioning activities reveal that tangible outcomes ultimately measure governance.
Political speeches have their place. Campaign promises are necessary. But nothing can substitute for concrete impact, measured in flowing taps, functional roads, improved hospitals, modern schools, housing estates, and thriving markets.
These are the parameters through which citizens eventually judge governments. It’s ultimately about what people can see, touch and benefit from.
A road either exists or it does not. Again, a water scheme either supplies water or it fails to supply water. The same applies to housing estates, hospitals, schools, markets, and countless other public assets.
In this regard, the Aliyu administration appears determined to ensure that its record is defined by visible interventions rather than abstract promises.
Naturally, no government is beyond criticism. Challenges remain and expectations continue to rise. There are sectors where citizens still demand faster progress and broader interventions. Such demands are legitimate in every democratic society. However, it is also crucial to recognise and acknowledge progress whenever it occurs.
The projects being commissioned across Sokoto State this week provide further evidence that the administration continues to invest in infrastructure, social welfare, and economic development. More importantly, they demonstrate consistency in governance priorities rather than the abandonment of campaign commitments.
As the commissioning ceremonies unfold, they collectively represent something larger than individual projects scattered across different local government areas.
They represent the harvest of deliberate planning, sustained investment and a governing philosophy anchored on delivering visible benefits to the people.
For Governor Ahmed Aliyu Sokoto, this season of commissioning is therefore not merely a celebration of completed projects. It is a reminder that development is a continuous journey and that the true measure of leadership lies not in promises made but in promises fulfilled.
Umar writes from Sokoto.
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