Column
Ndisgonabi—Tinubu or Tinubu
Ndisgonabi—Tinubu or Tinubu
By Prince Charles Dickson, PhD
Bí ìtàkùn bá pa ẹnu pọ̀, wọn á mú erin so.
If creeping plants could unite, they would easily tie up an elephant.
Politics is full of men who confuse noise for destiny. But destiny, that slippery old masquerade, usually waits for structure, which is often established through careful planning and consensus among political leaders. In 1984, New Zealand’s Prime Minister Robert Muldoon staggered into history by calling a snap election in a visibly drunken state, hoping to ambush the opposition. The gamble backfired. He lost. In January 2009, police in Kwara, Nigeria, detained a goat after vigilantes claimed an armed robbery suspect had transformed into an animal to escape arrest. The police kept the goat but admitted they could not confirm the witchcraft scientifically. One story is about power intoxicated by its own myth. The other is about a society so burdened by superstition that absurdity can wear handcuffs. Together, they say something brutal about politics: sometimes leaders misread reality, and sometimes citizens arrest the wrong animal.
That is where Nigeria is drifting toward 2027. The major issue at hand is Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Not because everybody loves him. This is not due to his government’s success in solving Nigeria’s issues. But in Nigerian politics, power is not awarded to the man who is most often complained about. It awards power to the man whose enemies cannot agree on which knife to use against him. INEC has already fixed the presidential and National Assembly election for 20 February 2027, with governorship and state assembly polls on 6 March 2027. The whistle has gone. This is no longer an era of abstract outrage. It is an era of arithmetic.
Now, let us be fair, because fairness is not weakness. Tinubu’s administration is not walking on water. Yet it is not walking on pure failure either. The World Bank said in its April 2026 Nigeria Development Update that macroeconomic fundamentals improved through 2025 and into 2026, with the economy growing at around 4 per cent, inflation trending downward though still elevated, and gross FAAC (Federal Account Allocation Committee) revenues rising from N29.4 trillion in 2024 to N37.4 trillion in 2025. NBS says headline inflation was 15.38% in March 2026, with food inflation at 14.31%. Those are not small numbers. They suggest that some macrostabilisation is happening. However, macroeconomic indicators do not provide direct support to those in need. Revenues can rise while despair deepens. A country can look healthier in spreadsheets and sicker in the market, as the economic indicators may show growth while the actual living conditions of the population deteriorate.
That is the contradiction that haunts Tinubu. The poverty of statistics and the statistics of poverty are not the same thing. Government can point to improving indicators, better revenue capture, tighter monetary conditions, and reform momentum. However, citizens do not experience life through a PowerPoint presentation. The citizen lives inside transport fares, school fees, rent, market prices, and the humiliation of constant improvisation. The World Bank’s April 2026 update shows poverty at 63% in 2025, with only a gradual projected decline from 2026 onwards. That single figure represents the true opposition to the government’s narrative. It means reform may be economically coherent and politically dangerous at the same time, as it could lead to increased public unrest and opposition from those who feel threatened by the changes.
Then there is insecurity, the dark editor of every government boast. In just the past weeks and months, Reuters and AP have reported major bandit abductions in Zamfara, deadly retaliatory attacks in Katsina, mass killings in parts of Kwara and Katsina earlier this year, and the abduction of students in Benue. Reuters also noted today, 22 April 2026, that Tinubu’s government is tightening internal security amid economic strain, heightened militant attacks in the north, and political friction. This situation is the administration’s greatest vulnerability. Citizens may forgive hardship if they feel protected. They rarely forgive hardship and fear in one package, as this combination often leads to a deep sense of betrayal and distrust in leadership.
And yet, here is the wicked truth: Tinubu can still win again.
He can win not because he has conquered suffering, but because the opposition may still be auditioning for tragedy, as they struggle to present a compelling alternative to the ruling party’s narrative and fail to effectively mobilise their base. Key opposition leaders formed a coalition around the ADC precisely because they understood the central lesson of Nigerian electoral history: only a united opposition can seriously threaten an entrenched ruling machine. Unity is not decoration. It is oxygen. Atiku has signalled his intention to run for office in 2027. This issue matters because every opposition conversation still has one stubborn ghost inside it: ambition.
This is where the North becomes a significant issue. Atiku remains familiar, networked, seasoned, and deeply legible to elite politics. But familiarity can curdle into fatigue. There is a suspicion around him in some quarters, not always ideological, often emotional: the feeling that he is forever arriving at the national bus stop with one more ticket, one more coalition, one more final attempt. That is not a polling number. It is a political mood, and moods matter.
Another more profound question is whether the North is willing to do an ‘Obi’, meaning not merely to tolerate Peter Obi as a southern protest vessel but to actively invest in him as a viable national instrument. That would require a leap from grievance to calculation, from sympathy to strategy. It would require sections of northern politics to decide that electability is now broader than old rotation habits, old patronage circuits, and old distrusts. That leap is possible. It is not yet proven.
The argument surrounding Obi himself is lazy at both extremes. His admirers often speak as though moral clarity is already a governing blueprint. His critics often speak as though he is made only of emotion and internet incense. Both positions are unserious. Obi’s 2023 rise was real because he converted public anger into a disciplined symbolic movement, and Reuters captured that early when it described his effort to harness Nigerians’ frustration with the status quo. But symbolism is not the same as statecraft. To do better than Tinubu, Obi would need more than clean optics and crowd voltage. He would need a tougher party architecture, stronger northern penetration, better elite bargaining, vote protection capacity, and a clearer answer to the old Nigerian riddle: how do you move from inspiration to enforcement? In other words, he can be more than emotion, but he has not yet fully proved the machine.
That brings me to Ndisgonabi. I first heard it in that playful, fatalistic exchange between my beloved friend Nima and her sister NG at an amala joint. One would say, ‘Ndisgonabi’. The other would answer, ‘It’s going to be.’ Then I too started echoing it: Ndisgonabi. Gonna be. It sounded funny, warm, and unserious. But like most street philosophy, it concealed a dangerous edge beneath its surface. Ndisgonabi is what people say when they are tired of pretending control. It is our local remix of “what will be, will be.” It is also, in politics, a dangerous narcotic.
Once citizens start saying ‘Ndisgonabi’ in relation to power, they have already surrendered the republic.
No, what is destined to happen is not always predetermined. Sometimes the future is determined by what has already been organised. Tinubu’s fate is not floating in the sky like a divine meme. It is being negotiated on the ground by insecurity, inflation, incumbency, elite bargains, northern calculations, opposition ego, media climate, and public exhaustion. If the creeping plants stay scattered, the elephant walks through the farm and calls it democracy. If Atiku quits his indecisiveness, Obi prioritises strategy over sentiment, the North prioritises interest over habit, and the opposition values unity over vanity, then Tinubu can lose.
Until then, Ndisgonabi may simply mean this: Tinubu or Tinubu—may Nigeria win!
Striking the Balance
The Vindication of General Christopher G. Musa, Rtd, CFR: Duty, Integrity, and the Price of Service
By MS Abubakar
In Nigeria’s recent history, few public officers have been tried in the court of public opinion as swiftly and as harshly as General Christopher Gwabin Musa, CFR. A soldier’s soldier. A professional. A man who, by his own admission, has only ever sought to serve Nigeria.
Today, that same man stands as the Honourable Minister of Defence of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. His return to national service is not just a political appointment. It is, in every sense of the word, a vindication — by God, by history, and by those who once counted him an adversary.
The 2023 ECOWAS Moment: Obedience in a Storm
To understand the weight of that vindication, we must go back to July 2023. General Abdourahamane Tchiani overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum of the Republic of Niger.
As Chairman of ECOWAS, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR, was confronted with a grave constitutional crisis on Nigeria’s northern border. After diplomatic options stalled, ECOWAS Heads of State authorised the use of force as a last resort to restore constitutional order in Niger.
The task of military planning and mobilisation fell to the then Chief of Defence Staff, General C.G. Musa. He was not making policy. He was executing the lawful orders of his Commander-in-Chief, as required by the 1999 Constitution and the Armed Forces Act.
That is where the trouble began.
Within days, a narrative emerged, especially on social media and in some Northern circles, that the CDS was pursuing a personal agenda. Commentators claimed General Musa was “out to avenge” Christians of Southern Kaduna, particularly those affected by violence in Zangon-Kataf and environs over the years. The accusation was simple and damaging: the act was not a national duty. This was ethnic and religious reprisal in uniform.
The allegation went viral. Clips were shared. Sermons were preached. Editorials were written.
What was missing in that storm was a voice of institutional defence. The National Security Adviser and the then Honourable Minister of Defence, both Muslims, chose to remain silent. No clarification. No public pushback. An officer carrying out constitutional orders was left to defend his name alone.
The Second Storm: The Banditry Debate
If the Niger episode was about loyalty, what followed was about conviction.
Shortly after, General Musa made his position on insecurity public and unequivocal: there should be no negotiations with terrorists and bandits. His argument was rooted in operational experience from the Northeast and Northwest. Negotiations, he insisted, had only emboldened criminal networks. What was required was sustained kinetic action, community defence, and the dismantling of the bandit economy.
For that stance, he paid a price. He was retired from service. To many observers at the time, it looked like the end of a career. The system had moved on.
But public memory is long. And the security situation did not improve by pretending the problem away.
The First Vindication: Called Back to Serve
Then, “out of the blues”, President Tinubu recalled him. Not as CDS, but to a higher political office: Honourable Minister of Defence.
That recall was more than a second chance. It was an institutional admission. The same convictions that were once deemed too hardline were now needed at the centre of national security policy. The same officer, once accused of bias, was now trusted to superintend the entire defence architecture of a multi-ethnic, multi-religious nation.
That is divine vindication. When men write you off, history writes you back in.
The Second Vindication: Respect Across the Border
But God’s vindication was not the only one. There is also the vindication of man. And in this case, the most unlikely of men.
I was reliably informed by a source within the office of General Abdourahamane Tchiani, President of Niger, that General Musa is held in very high esteem by the Nigerien junta.
Not in spite of 2023, but because of how he conducted himself.
According to the account, two things stand out to them: his professionalism as a military officer and his personal character of integrity and empathy. Even across the divide of a threatened military intervention, the Nigerien leadership distinguishes between the office, the orders, and the man.
They do not see a religious crusader. They see a professional soldier who did his duty without malice.
Let it be clear: I am not a personal staff member of the minister nor a contractor with the Ministry of Defence. I have no contract to protect and no brief to sell. I write this simply as a Nigerian reflecting on how providence can clear the name of the innocent and how character outlives propaganda.
Why This Matters for Nigeria
The Musa episode reveals three truths about Nigeria that we must confront if we want peace.
1. We criminalise obedience.
A soldier obeys lawful orders. That is the foundation of civil-military relations. When we attack officers for carrying out policy, and we stay silent when they do, we create an incentive for future officers to be timid. A timid military is a danger to democracy.
2. We reduce national issues to ethno-religious contests.
The quickest way to delegitimise any Northern Christian officer is to label “him as “anti-Muslim”. The quickest way to delegitimise any Northern Muslim officer is to tag him as “pro-establishment.” General Musa was accused because of where he comes from, not what he did. That is dangerous. It means no officer from any minority community in the North can rise without suspicion.
3. We forget that conviction has a cost.
His position on bandits — no negotiation, no ransom — was unpopular with some, but it was consistent. Today, that position is closer to government policy than it was two years ago. Vindication often comes late because truth is often early.
An Admonition to Northern Nigeria
This brings me to my final point.
Northern Nigeria is not a monolith. It is a multi-cultural, multi-faith society. Hausa, Fulani, Kanuri, Nupe, Tiv, Idoma, Jukun, Berom, Bajju, Kataf, and over a hundred other groups call it home. Christians and Muslims have lived, traded, farmed, and fought side by side for centuries.
We cannot build a peaceful North by casting people as “outsiders” in their own land. We cannot develop if every appointment, every promotion, and every military operation is read through the lens of faith or ethnicity.
No Nigerian should be castigated, ridiculed, victimised, harassed, or blackmailed because of their faith or ethnicity. No officer should be called a “religious avenger” for doing his job. No citizen should be told he does not belong because his surname or his church is different.
The North will only witness peace and development when we accept people as they are and allow them to contribute their quota. When a Kataf child and a Fulani child can go to the same school without fear. When a Christian officer and a Muslim officer can both rise to CDS without their religion becoming a headline.
That is the Nigeria General Musa has served. That is the Nigeria we must all serve.
Conclusion: The Measure of a Man
Leadership is not tested in peace. It is tested in controversy.
General Christopher G. Musa was accused, retired, and counted out. He is now back, not by lobbying, but by record. He is respected, not just in Abuja, but even in Niamey, by those who once faced him across a border.
That is what vindication looks like.
It is God restoring. It is history correcting. It is adversaries admitting, quietly, that the man was professional all along.
May we learn from this. May we judge our public officers by their service to Nigeria, not by the tribe of their father or the church or mosque they attend.
For in the end, Nigeria does not belong to one faith or one ethnic group. Nigeria belongs to all of us. And it is only when we all belong that Nigeria will work for all of us.
Column
New Gombe Executive Council and the Imperative of Consolidation
New Gombe Executive Council and the Imperative of Consolidation
By Ismaila Uba Misilli
The recent inauguration of a new Gombe State Executive Council by Governor Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya, CON, signals the beginning of a critical phase in the life of an administration that has transformed Gombe State over the past seven years and is now focused on consolidating those gains before the expiration of its tenure.
The task before the new cabinet, as stressed by the Governor, is enormous, but so too is the opportunity. This moment is the time to consolidate, innovate and deliver.
Every decision, every policy and every intervention must move Gombe State closer to its aspiration of becoming one of Nigeria’s most prosperous, inclusive and forward-looking states as envisioned by Governor Inuwa Yahaya.
The Governor has left no one in doubt about his expectations. Speaking during the swearing-in of 23 Commissioners, 13 Special Advisers, the Head of Civil Service and a Permanent Secretary, he delivered a clear and unmistakable message: there is no honeymoon period in governance; there is only the responsibility to perform.
That message was reinforced during his maiden interactive session with the newly inaugurated commissioners, where he charged them to hit the ground running, work in close synergy, recover lost ground where necessary, remain focused on the administration’s development agenda and resist every form of distraction.
With less than a year remaining in the administration’s second term, every day matters. Every ministry must become a centre of innovation, execution and measurable impact.
Demonstrating strategic foresight, Governor Inuwa Yahaya has also restructured government to respond to emerging realities. The creation of the Ministry of Livestock Development, in line with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, positions Gombe to harness the vast economic opportunities in the livestock value chain.
Similarly, the establishment of the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction reflects a deliberate commitment to addressing social vulnerability, strengthening safety nets and improving the welfare of the most disadvantaged members of society.
Although many of the commissioners are returning members of the cabinet, they are entering a new phase with renewed responsibilities. They inherit an administration that has built a strong foundation through prudent financial management, strategic planning and disciplined execution.
Under Governor Inuwa Yahaya’s leadership, Gombe State has recorded remarkable progress in road infrastructure, healthcare, education, agriculture, environmental sustainability, investment promotion, rural electrification and public financial management, among others.
These achievements have earned the state national and international recognition for transparency, fiscal discipline, healthcare reforms, environmental stewardship and ease of doing business.
But governance is a continuum. Yesterday’s achievements cannot become today’s resting place. The real challenge before the Executive Council is not merely to preserve these gains but to accelerate them, ensuring that every policy and every project translates into tangible improvements in the lives of the people.
This explains why the Governor placed such strong emphasis on synergy. Modern governance demands collaboration. Ministries, departments and agencies must work as one coordinated team rather than isolated institutions. Development challenges: Integrated planning, seamless coordination, and shared responsibility are essential for addressing interconnected development challenges and achieving sustainable solutions; sustainable solutions require integrated planning, seamless coordination, and shared responsibility.
Equally significant is the Governor’s insistence on discipline, accountability and dedication. Public office is a sacred trust, not a privilege. Every commissioner has been charged to demonstrate integrity in the management of public resources, transparency in decision-making and responsiveness to the needs of the people. In the end, citizens will judge government not by speeches but by visible results.
As always pointed out by Governor Inuwa Yahaya, the expectations of the people of Gombe are high. They expect better roads, quality healthcare, improved schools, expanded access to potable water, reliable electricity, increased agricultural productivity, more employment opportunities, stronger security and an economy that creates prosperity for all. Above all, they expect a government that listens, responds and delivers.
Meeting these expectations requires leadership that is accessible, proactive and solution-orientated. Commissioners must remain connected to the people, engage stakeholders regularly, monitor projects closely, eliminate bureaucratic bottlenecks and ensure that every ministry operates with clearly defined targets, measurable outcomes and a culture of performance.
The pledges by the commissioners to remain loyal, united and committed to Governor Inuwa Yahaya’s vision are reassuring. However, loyalty in public service finds its highest expression in performance. The confidence reposed in them by the Governor can only be justified through hard work, innovation, integrity and measurable service delivery.
As the administration enters this decisive phase, the Executive Council has a rare opportunity to help shape an enduring legacy.
History often judges harshly governments that merely manage time. It remembers those who maximise it. For the new Executive Council, the mandate is clear: consolidate the gains, accelerate development, deepen reforms and finish strong. The time to deliver is now.
It is a known fact that Governor Inuwa Yahaya has provided the vision, established the direction and created the enabling environment. The responsibility now rests squarely on the shoulders of the Executive Council to translate that vision into even greater achievements.
The Arbiter
Of banditry and a shared sovereignty (3)
Of banditry and a shared sovereignty (3)
By Hassan Gimba
This is the concluding part of this series. The first two editions were published two weeks ago. Although the article was originally written in 2022, its message remains as timely and relevant today as it was then. With insecurity continuing to ravage every region of the country, leaving citizens in constant fear and uncertainty, the issues it raises remain urgent and worthy of renewed attention.
Last week, they attacked an estate within Abuja. Gunmen, bandits, Boko Haram, those who “drag” sovereignty with Nigeria, attacked Genuine Estate, within the vicinity of Gwarimpa, Nigeria’s (some accounts say south of the Sahara’s) largest housing estate. They did this undisturbed and calmly, between 1 and 4 am on Sunday. The police said it was a robbery. Residents, however, said they kidnapped some of their people. Now, we all know that robbers hardly take prisoners. It is now left for people to believe who they want to believe.
But based on precedent, I will want to believe the residents because the police, in more than one case, do not say what we know is the truth. Perhaps, for security reasons.
On Tuesday, May 17, an explosion rocked Winners, a nursery and primary school in the Sabon Gari area of Kano metropolis, in which buildings were destroyed, and about nine people were killed. The police told us it was a gas explosion. A week later, they changed the story: they said an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) caused it, and that they had arrested two people.
However, this doublespeak has become the norm with our government and its agencies while marauders keep terrorising the nation with unperturbed impunity.
We have always seized the opportunity to point out that apart from other parts of the country, “Abuja, the nation’s capital, is itself not exempt. Bandits operating in Niger State to the West, Kogi to the South, Kaduna to the North, and Nasarawa to the East have surrounded Abuja, and there is a need for a clinical onslaught against them. The Fulani settlements in these areas have to be forensically combed. Quite a few of the rugas around Kuje, Lugbe, and close to the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport are alleged to be used by bandits to store weapons.”
Within the town itself, you move at your own risk because hoodlums have taken over major spots. Robbery attacks are recurring themes in dark places, especially on bridges, in wooded spots, and at pedestrian crossings. The ever-busy Apo-Maitama expressway, pedestrian bridges, and roundabouts at Area One and Wuse Market, and from Zone 7 down to Berger and up to the Abuja-Kubwa-Kaduna expressway, are among the major areas frequented by criminal elements. From City Gate to Gwagwalada is another dangerous habitat for these criminal elements.
The southern part of Nigeria, too, has its share of warlords. Just as the North is in the grip of terrorists wrongly addressed as bandits, the South West was on the verge of being made ungovernable by a man called Sunday Igboho. He determined who lives there or not.
While Sunday Igboho in the South West has been tamed, all thanks to the Benin Republic authorities, the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and its armed wing, the Eastern Security Network (ESN), are still strong in the South East.
The South West, which is the most organised geopolitical zone in the country, is now tame, unlike most of the North and South East.
Apart from the killings of indigenes, termed Sabo (for saboteur) and non-indigenes, mostly from the North, there is a lot of propaganda – and insults – coming out from the South East. Some say that’s because they want “independence”, and others say it’s because they want the presidency. Whichever, their method is the wrong one. You can’t fight everyone and yet want them to consider you. Insults, blackmail and threats to life are their major weapons. I pity the judge handling the case of Nnamdi Kanu.
Well, all the happenings in the various regions of the country that have made the Nigerian state share sovereignty with non-state actors are because of the authorities’ inability to punish lawbreakers. Whoever committed whatever crime must not go unpunished.
The way it is now, anything can happen. The most abominable things can occur at any time. While the security agencies are overwhelmed, crime news, too, overwhelms newsmen, so that a lot goes unreported for want of space or time. The sad narrative is becoming the norm. And whenever the President’s spokespersons deem it fit to make any comment, it is the usual “condemnation”. Perhaps they do not know that you condemn the actions of those whose condemnation will hurt, not those who are competing with you for sovereignty.
The president usually ends up with an infuriating, half-hearted, lukewarm order to the security forces to fish out the perpetrators or to move to “the theatre of war”. We have seen how, on more than one occasion, he gave that order to service chiefs. Without hearing a counter order, they would be back in Abuja, and it would be business as usual, only for something to happen for him to renew the ineffective order.
Many security experts believe that the people have to take back their lands by themselves if such a government response to crime continues.
On January 3, 2022, writing on this page under the headline ‘Banditry and our quest for leadership’, we observed that: “One solution is for the government to organise a people’s militia that will flush out all those marauders. It can encourage each local government to muster at least 5,000 of its youth who will be trained to confront the bandits. The Nigerian government should transform the war against the bandits into a people’s war for self-defence by training and arming these youths. We must take the battle to every inch of the space occupied by the bandits. Possibly, all settlements in the bush should be cleared and moved to the main roads.
“That strategy proved successful in both Iraq and Syria. But it is not only in Iraq or Somalia. Here in Nigeria, some communities have stood eyeball to eyeball with bandits and insurgents and, as a result, found themselves some peace. Biu in Borno State and Azare in Bauchi State readily come to mind.
“When Boko Haram members set the people of Biu in their sights, killing them arbitrarily, the elders met and decided to “kill the enemy within”. Known community members who aided the terrorists were arrested in a sting operation and summarily executed. Extrajudicial, of course, but it was a period of war, and self-survival was paramount. Putting sentiment aside, parents gave up their sons, friends pointed at friends, and all culprits were dealt with. Boko Haram chiefs had to send a delegation to the town seeking a truce. Since then, Biu found peace as Boko Haram never attacked them again, leaving them in peace while other northeastern towns whose people cringed in fear have known no respite from Boko Haram.”
This is also what happened in Maiduguri, the capital of Borno State. Tired of being at the mercy of Boko Haram and being at the receiving end of soldiers’ mop-up operations, the youths, backed by elders and approved by the government and with support from the army, formed what came to be known as the Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF) for short. They drove the insurgents, false jihadists, out of the towns and into the bushes.
I foresee this happening also in the South East. The people will rise to take back their lives. The hurtful sit-at-home orders and the barbarous threat of IPOB/ESN hovering over them like the Sword of Damocles will push them to shake off the fear of their tormentors.
Fighting insecurity and the looming anarchy is too serious to be left in the hands of those who think they are safe and unassailable.
Concluded
Hassan Gimba, ANIPR, is the Publisher and CEO of Neptune Prime.
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