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Ndisgonabi—Tinubu or Tinubu

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Ndisgonabi—Tinubu or Tinubu

Ndisgonabi—Tinubu or Tinubu

By Prince Charles Dickson, PhD

 

Bí ìtàkùn bá pa ẹnu pọ̀, wọn á mú erin so.

If creeping plants could unite, they would easily tie up an elephant.

 

Politics is full of men who confuse noise for destiny. But destiny, that slippery old masquerade, usually waits for structure, which is often established through careful planning and consensus among political leaders. In 1984, New Zealand’s Prime Minister Robert Muldoon staggered into history by calling a snap election in a visibly drunken state, hoping to ambush the opposition. The gamble backfired. He lost. In January 2009, police in Kwara, Nigeria, detained a goat after vigilantes claimed an armed robbery suspect had transformed into an animal to escape arrest. The police kept the goat but admitted they could not confirm the witchcraft scientifically. One story is about power intoxicated by its own myth. The other is about a society so burdened by superstition that absurdity can wear handcuffs. Together, they say something brutal about politics: sometimes leaders misread reality, and sometimes citizens arrest the wrong animal.

 

That is where Nigeria is drifting toward 2027. The major issue at hand is Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Not because everybody loves him. This is not due to his government’s success in solving Nigeria’s issues. But in Nigerian politics, power is not awarded to the man who is most often complained about. It awards power to the man whose enemies cannot agree on which knife to use against him. INEC has already fixed the presidential and National Assembly election for 20 February 2027, with governorship and state assembly polls on 6 March 2027. The whistle has gone. This is no longer an era of abstract outrage. It is an era of arithmetic.

 

Now, let us be fair, because fairness is not weakness. Tinubu’s administration is not walking on water. Yet it is not walking on pure failure either. The World Bank said in its April 2026 Nigeria Development Update that macroeconomic fundamentals improved through 2025 and into 2026, with the economy growing at around 4 per cent, inflation trending downward though still elevated, and gross FAAC (Federal Account Allocation Committee) revenues rising from N29.4 trillion in 2024 to N37.4 trillion in 2025. NBS says headline inflation was 15.38% in March 2026, with food inflation at 14.31%. Those are not small numbers. They suggest that some macrostabilisation is happening. However, macroeconomic indicators do not provide direct support to those in need. Revenues can rise while despair deepens. A country can look healthier in spreadsheets and sicker in the market, as the economic indicators may show growth while the actual living conditions of the population deteriorate.

 

That is the contradiction that haunts Tinubu. The poverty of statistics and the statistics of poverty are not the same thing. Government can point to improving indicators, better revenue capture, tighter monetary conditions, and reform momentum. However, citizens do not experience life through a PowerPoint presentation. The citizen lives inside transport fares, school fees, rent, market prices, and the humiliation of constant improvisation. The World Bank’s April 2026 update shows poverty at 63% in 2025, with only a gradual projected decline from 2026 onwards. That single figure represents the true opposition to the government’s narrative. It means reform may be economically coherent and politically dangerous at the same time, as it could lead to increased public unrest and opposition from those who feel threatened by the changes.

 

Then there is insecurity, the dark editor of every government boast. In just the past weeks and months, Reuters and AP have reported major bandit abductions in Zamfara, deadly retaliatory attacks in Katsina, mass killings in parts of Kwara and Katsina earlier this year, and the abduction of students in Benue. Reuters also noted today, 22 April 2026, that Tinubu’s government is tightening internal security amid economic strain, heightened militant attacks in the north, and political friction. This situation is the administration’s greatest vulnerability. Citizens may forgive hardship if they feel protected. They rarely forgive hardship and fear in one package, as this combination often leads to a deep sense of betrayal and distrust in leadership.

 

And yet, here is the wicked truth: Tinubu can still win again.

 

He can win not because he has conquered suffering, but because the opposition may still be auditioning for tragedy, as they struggle to present a compelling alternative to the ruling party’s narrative and fail to effectively mobilise their base. Key opposition leaders formed a coalition around the ADC precisely because they understood the central lesson of Nigerian electoral history: only a united opposition can seriously threaten an entrenched ruling machine. Unity is not decoration. It is oxygen. Atiku has signalled his intention to run for office in 2027. This issue matters because every opposition conversation still has one stubborn ghost inside it: ambition.

 

This is where the North becomes a significant issue. Atiku remains familiar, networked, seasoned, and deeply legible to elite politics. But familiarity can curdle into fatigue. There is a suspicion around him in some quarters, not always ideological, often emotional: the feeling that he is forever arriving at the national bus stop with one more ticket, one more coalition, one more final attempt. That is not a polling number. It is a political mood, and moods matter.

 

Another more profound question is whether the North is willing to do an ‘Obi’, meaning not merely to tolerate Peter Obi as a southern protest vessel but to actively invest in him as a viable national instrument. That would require a leap from grievance to calculation, from sympathy to strategy. It would require sections of northern politics to decide that electability is now broader than old rotation habits, old patronage circuits, and old distrusts. That leap is possible. It is not yet proven.

 

The argument surrounding Obi himself is lazy at both extremes. His admirers often speak as though moral clarity is already a governing blueprint. His critics often speak as though he is made only of emotion and internet incense. Both positions are unserious. Obi’s 2023 rise was real because he converted public anger into a disciplined symbolic movement, and Reuters captured that early when it described his effort to harness Nigerians’ frustration with the status quo. But symbolism is not the same as statecraft. To do better than Tinubu, Obi would need more than clean optics and crowd voltage. He would need a tougher party architecture, stronger northern penetration, better elite bargaining, vote protection capacity, and a clearer answer to the old Nigerian riddle: how do you move from inspiration to enforcement? In other words, he can be more than emotion, but he has not yet fully proved the machine.

 

That brings me to Ndisgonabi. I first heard it in that playful, fatalistic exchange between my beloved friend Nima and her sister NG at an amala joint. One would say, ‘Ndisgonabi’. The other would answer, ‘It’s going to be.’ Then I too started echoing it: Ndisgonabi. Gonna be. It sounded funny, warm, and unserious. But like most street philosophy, it concealed a dangerous edge beneath its surface. Ndisgonabi is what people say when they are tired of pretending control. It is our local remix of “what will be, will be.” It is also, in politics, a dangerous narcotic.

 

Once citizens start saying ‘Ndisgonabi’ in relation to power, they have already surrendered the republic.

 

No, what is destined to happen is not always predetermined. Sometimes the future is determined by what has already been organised. Tinubu’s fate is not floating in the sky like a divine meme. It is being negotiated on the ground by insecurity, inflation, incumbency, elite bargains, northern calculations, opposition ego, media climate, and public exhaustion. If the creeping plants stay scattered, the elephant walks through the farm and calls it democracy. If Atiku quits his indecisiveness, Obi prioritises strategy over sentiment, the North prioritises interest over habit, and the opposition values unity over vanity, then Tinubu can lose.

 

Until then, Ndisgonabi may simply mean this: Tinubu or Tinubu—may Nigeria win!

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Now, nowhere is safe (1)

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Now, nowhere is safe (1)

Now, nowhere is safe (1)

By Hassan Gimba.

This article was first published on the 4th of April, 2022. It is as relevant today as it was then. Only that it is now: no one is safe, not only nowhere. What with generals being killed on the roads (read: General Alkali), abducted from their fortified homes (read: General Tsafe), or whisked away on the highways (read: General Rabe) and killed in the bushes, not in active service or as prisoners of war (POWs) but as shackled captives.

Will today’s leaders act on our insecurity before tomorrow, when they must leave their offices without their convoys and security details?

First, they came for the Communists;
And I did not speak out.
Because I was not a Communist.

Then they came for the socialists;
And I did not speak out.
Because I was not a Socialist.

Then they came for the trade unionists;
And I did not speak out.
This was because I was not a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews;
And I did not speak out.
Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me.
And there was no one left.
To speak out for me.

The above four stanzas, variations of which have been named “First they came…”, are the poetic rendition of a 1946 post-war confessional prose by the German Lutheran pastor Martin Niemöller (1892–1984). He made it on 6 January, 1946, in his speech for the Confessing Church in Frankfurt. Even though it speaks about the cowardice of German intellectuals and certain clergy – including, by his own admission, himself – in speaking out following the Nazis’ rise to power and the subsequent incremental purging of their chosen targets, group after group, one can relate it to Nigeria’s situation.

Let us take, for instance, when Boko Haram started their mayhem in Borno and Yobe States. The attacks primarily targeted security agents, leading many people to remain unconcerned. When they targeted the people, it became evident that we should have taken collective action earlier to prevent the menace from escalating. However, we refrained from taking action because the security agents were the primary targets. And by the time they came for us, we knew we had goofed.

Some years ago, when kidnappings, killings, and general banditry started escalating, leading to a worsening of insecurity in the North West, many of us started sounding the alarm, but to no avail. Those who should have come down heavily on the recalcitrant, undesirable elements to save the nation thought it affected us, not them. Now, nowhere is safe.

On December 24, 2018, under the topic Insecurity: North Under Siege, on this page, I wrote, “North Central has become a traveller’s nightmare, from Rijau to Birnin Gwari and Gwanin Gora to Rijana, through Kaduna, and down to the suburbs of the Plateau.” Travelling poses a personal risk, as even four-star generals face arbitrary killings. Herdsmen kill every moving object and sack villages, burning everything down to ashes. Kidnappers are also having a field day. Are some of them, especially the herdsmen and kidnappers, another face of Boko Haram, getting the much-needed cash for their operations?

Travelling confidently from one town or village to the next after 7 pm is difficult. Even in broad daylight, people embark on road travel with trepidation. Journeying by plane is no longer for luxury but for safety.
“Our security apparatuses possibly need a total overhaul and help from elsewhere. There has to be synergy among the different actors, adoption of modern policing methods, and a revival of community policing. Those who had the power to overhaul our security system and make it more proactive were indifferent because they believed it only affected us, not them. Now, nowhere is safe.”

Also on this page, on 15 June 2020, writing on the topic The North and Insecurity: What has changed? I said, “Our leaders and, of course, all men and women of goodwill must be concerned.” We all need to help find a solution; Frankenstein-like monsters have been reared, and peace is threatening to elude us. We live in fear of what fate awaits our children and our children’s children.

‘Just recently, the South West established a security outfit named Amotekun, ostensibly to protect its people. However, it is important to acknowledge that Amotekun has been a part of our lives for a considerable period. People hire private security guards for protection. That is Amotekun. We barricade streets at both ends, and the inhabitants hire private security guards to patrol them. That is also Amotekun. The private security industry will soon thrive as more Nigerians seek their services. Soon, regions, states, and local governments may all set up their own Amotekun because the centre can no longer hold it.

“Crime will become pervasive and entrenched in our society if we cannot do something about it now. Already, there are illiterate, semiliterate, and even literate people who are hungry but willing to die for a phone or a few thousand naira. If we don’t address the situation now, they may resort to killing for an earpiece, a few hundred naira, or a morsel of food in the future. The law-abiding can no longer sleep soundly, and the rich will discover no haven anywhere, even with all their wealth. All shall be consumed. Wake up, we must.” Those who could protect us didn’t wake up because they believed they were safe, even if we weren’t. Now, nowhere is safe.

On March 1, 2021, still on this page, while making a comment under The North and the Effect of Janus, I wrote: “Since kidnapping for ransom became a fad on the Abuja-Kaduna Road and in the bushes of the northwestern and central states of Nigeria, I started shouting here that it is a financial drive by Boko Haram. The kidnappers belong to their economic arm. They are only ignorant foot soldiers being used as cannon fodder.” Those who should have listened didn’t, and now there is no safe place.

Yet still on this page, on December 24, 2018, I wrote: “In the North West, armed bandits, perhaps Boko Haram with a different face, are threatening to take over, with Zamfara State almost under their control… they ransack communities at will, kill, maim and take as many as they can with them for ransom. The bandits can come to a marriage gathering and just demand the bride, who would be handed over to them, with thanks.

“Those who have declared war on Nigeria are abducting farmers and voiceless Nigerians, but we let them play the music while we dance.”

“What has happened to our intelligence-gathering ability…? It is quite a wonder how scores of marauders riding motorcycles with sawed-off silencers can leave the bush, come to towns, operate for hours, pick up hundreds of students, and then return to the bush unchallenged. In the not-so-distant past, our security agencies used to have operators called “stool pigeons”. They were the backbone of human intelligence (HUMINT) gathering… Now, we can scatter such HUMINT operatives across the towns such that the moment insurgents or their economic arm, the bandits, come out, the operational headquarters of our security agencies will be aware. They could be farmers, hunters, villagers, and even herders scattered throughout the area.

“The innocent child sees its father as a superhero who will protect it, and the innocent citizen should consider their country in the same way.” Unfortunately, we are discovering the harsh reality that life continues in Nigeria, regardless of the circumstances. The people’s innocence has shattered, and unfortunately, their faith in their country has suffered severe damage. We should fear the day when citizens stop respecting a government or society that cannot protect its own.

As long as we fail to bring criminals to justice and treat them with leniency, we will continue to empower them. They see how others were given “amnesty” and “deradicalised” for taking arms against the state, wreaking havoc on communities, and letting blood flow. They see that the worst thing that could happen to them is “condemnation”. But condemnations, like rebukes, are meant for those who recognise your authority over them. This class of criminals does not recognise the condemning authorities.” However, those who mattered kept condemning, and now nowhere is safe.

Hassan Gimba, ANIPR, is the publisher and CEO of Neptune Prime.

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Guest Column

The north need to face the reality

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The north need to face the reality

 

The north need to face the reality

 

By Adamu Saleh

 

On a daily basis, innocent lives are being lost to the activities of Boko Haram, kidnappers, and other criminal elements across Northern Nigeria. Yet, our leaders—and even some members of the public—appear more preoccupied with political celebrations, singing and dancing in the streets as though all is well in the region and the country at large.

Meanwhile, our fellow citizens in the southern part of the country are increasingly vocal in expressing their frustration over the government’s inadequate response to insecurity. They seize every available platform to protest and demand accountability. Recently, students were kidnapped in Oyo State, prompting widespread outrage. Notably, popular artist Davido was seen wearing a jacket bearing the names of the abducted schoolboys, while social media activist VeryDarkMan was captured in a viral video at the Defence Headquarters in Abuja, calling for the immediate rescue of the victims.

The Northern region has arguably suffered the most from terrorism and banditry for nearly two decades. However, a sense of resignation and fatalism appears to have taken root among many of us, dulling the urgency to confront these challenges and safeguard the future of coming generations.

This situation is deeply troubling. It is time for us to rise, take responsibility, and collectively redefine our path as a people within this country.

Saleh can be reached through bappandada1@gmail.com

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Rising Tides in Gombe: Defections, Endorsements and the Emerging Political Momentum Behind Jamil Gwamna

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Rising Tides in Gombe: Defections, Endorsements and the Emerging Political Momentum Behind Jamil Gwamna

Rising Tides in Gombe: Defections, Endorsements and the Emerging Political Momentum Behind Jamil Gwamna

 

By Adamu Saleh

 

As the 2027 governorship elections gradually take shape in the country. In Gombe State, the political atmosphere is witnessing a significant realignment marked by high-profile defections and strategic endorsements. At the centre of this shifting landscape is Dr Jamil Isyaku Gwamna, the gubernatorial candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), whose growing influence appears to be redefining the contours of the race.

In what many observers described as a major political boost, a coalition of stakeholders from key opposition parties, including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), African Democratic Congress (ADC), and Labour Party (LP), recently defected to the APC. The group, comprising notable figures such as Professor Sulaiman Dankande, Hon. Nura Abba, Hon. Abdullah Amtai, Hon. Dedan Mela, and Hon. Murtala Usman Dukku, formally declared their support for Dr Gwamna during a visit to him in Gombe recently.

Their decision, according to a joint statement, was driven by a shared conviction in Gwamna’s leadership qualities, integrity, and vision for the future of the state. “Our decision to join the APC is informed by the need to support a leader who has the capacity, integrity, and clear direction for the future of Gombe State,” the group stated, pledging total commitment to his victory in 2027.

Dr Gwamna, in his response, described the move as a step in the right direction, emphasising the importance of unity and collective effort in advancing the development of Gombe State and its people. He assured the defectors of inclusivity and a shared commitment to good governance and urged them to ensure the success of the party at all levels.

This wave of political realignment was further reinforced by a remarkable show of grassroots support from over 1,500 Gombe indigenes currently working at the Kano Electricity Distribution Company (KEDCO). In a well-attended solidarity event, the workers unanimously endorsed Dr. Gwamna’s candidacy, citing his role in facilitating employment opportunities for many of them during his tenure at the company.

The endorsement carries both symbolic and practical significance. For many of the beneficiaries, Gwamna’s intervention was not merely an employment opportunity but a transformative moment that reshaped their economic realities and uplifted their families. Their collective voice, therefore, represents not just political support but also a deep sense of gratitude and trust in his leadership.

Speaking on behalf of the group, the KEDCO staff described Dr Gwamna as “a man of vision, compassion, and proven capacity”, affirming their readiness to mobilise support across their networks ahead of the 2027 elections. They also expressed confidence in his ability to sustain and build upon the developmental strides of the current administration, particularly in infrastructure, economic growth, and human capital development.

The event also featured the participation of KEDCO’s Managing Director, Dr Abubakar Shuaibu Jimeta, who joined virtually from Saudi Arabia, where he is performing the Hajj. His virtual presence added further weight to the endorsement, reflecting a broad-based alignment of support within professional and administrative circles.

An emotional Dr. Gwamna expressed profound appreciation for the overwhelming support, noting that the success stories of the beneficiaries stand as a testament to the power of investing in people. He reiterated his commitment to policies that prioritise job creation, youth empowerment, economic growth of the state and sustainable development.

Political analysts view these developments as a strong indication of Gwamna’s rising profile and the consolidation of a formidable support base ahead of the elections. The convergence of elite defections and grassroots endorsements suggests a campaign strategy that is both top-down and bottom-up, appealing to political actors and ordinary citizens alike.

As Gombe State moves closer to the 2027 governorship contest, the unfolding dynamics signal a potentially transformative election cycle. Whether this growing momentum will translate into electoral victory remains to be seen, but one thing is increasingly clear: Dr Jamil Isyaku Gwamna has become a central figure in the state’s evolving political narrative.

In a political environment often defined by uncertainty, his campaign appears to be gaining clarity, structure, and widespread appeal, factors that could prove decisive in the months ahead.

 

Saleh can be reached through bappandada1@gmail.com

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