Striking the Balance
Strategic Drift: When Security Policy Becomes Perception Management
Strategic Drift: When Security Policy Becomes Perception Management
By M.S. Abubakar
Researcher, Military Studies & Strategic Affairs
A nation cannot win an insurgency with press releases. In military doctrine, legitimacy precedes communication. You secure the people first, then you explain it to the world. When we reverse that order, we obtain what we have today: tactical activity with strategic failure.
Nigeria is currently facing two converging security crises. Externally, the Sahel has reorganised against us. Internally, killings in Zamfara, Katsina, Benue, and Southern Kaduna continue despite deployments. Both point to one root issue: the quality of strategic advice reaching the presidency.
1. THE SAHEL MISTAKE: COERCION WITHOUT DIPLOMACY
In July 2023, following the removal of President Mohamed Bazoum in the Niger Republic, ECOWAS, under Nigeria’s leadership, threatened military intervention. Legally, the threat was grounded in the ECOWAS Protocol on Democracy. Strategically, it was a miscalculation.
Students of regional security know that sanctions and threats must always have a diplomatic track. Without it, you push states into alternative alliances. That is precisely what happened. Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso exited ECOWAS and formed the Alliance of Sahel States, AES.
Today Nigeria shares a 1,500 km border with a bloc that is hostile to ECOWAS, deepening ties with non-Western partners and becoming a corridor for arms and terrorism. We traded regional integration for regional isolation.
The doctrinal lesson is clear. In counter-insurgency and regional stabilisation, the political objective is more important than military action. We achieved the opposite: we preserved principle but lost influence.
2. DOMESTIC INSECURITY: THE HUMAN COST OF WRONG PRIORITIES
While we manage optics abroad, the ground at home is bleeding. Recent reports from SBM Intelligence and other security monitors show a spike in fatalities and mass abductions by Boko Haram, bandits, and other armed groups across the North West and North Central. I don’t need to quote the actual statistics here because they are negative.
The killings in Zamfara, Katsina, Plateau, Benue and Kaduna are not random. They are tied to land, identity, climate pressure, and the proliferation of small arms. Yet the response remains largely kinetic: troops, curfews, and condolences.
Kinetic force can clear territory. It cannot build trust. And without trust, communities will not provide intelligence. Without intelligence, the military is blind.
A human security approach is overdue. This means four things:
1. Direct engagement with community, traditional and faith leaders to de-escalate.
2. Swift justice. Victims on all sides must see the law work.
3. Constitutional state policing and properly regulated community defence.
4. Care for IDPs and families of the fallen. A soldier who knows his family will be cared for fights differently.
3. THE $9M QUESTION: MANDATE, PRIORITIES AND BLOWBACK
This brings us to the most troubling development. According to “The Guardian Newspaper”, the federal government engaged a US firm, DCI Group, for a $9 million contract. The stated purpose was “to communicate the federal government’s efforts to protect Christians” in the United States and to help secure high-level meetings in Washington.
From a national security perspective, three issues arise.
First, mandate and coordination. Defence diplomacy is the responsibility of the Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The office of the National Security Adviser is a coordinating and advisory one. When the NSA’s office leads a $9m PR contract instead of driving intelligence fusion and inter-agency planning, it creates confusion in the chain of command. Our adversaries exploit that confusion.
Second, prioritisation. Nine million dollars can fund 1,000 community early warning networks. It can equip mobile courts for speedy prosecution of criminality. It can support trauma counselling for communities in the Middle Belt. Spending it abroad to explain what is not working at home sends the wrong signal to both citizens and enemies. Perception does not stop bullets. Governance does.
Third, strategic blowback. The Guardian report also notes concerns raised in the US about the background of the lobby firm. In international relations, partner vetting matters. A misstep in Washington can damage the very military-to-military and intelligence relationships our troops need for equipment, training, and information sharing. We risked access for optics.
4. BACK TO FIRST PRINCIPLES: THE ROLE OF THE NSA
The role of the National Security Adviser is defined by law, not by politics. It is to provide the president objective, timely, and integrated advice. It is not to run PR. It is not to manage 2031.
Three things must happen now:
1. Return to Human Security. The metric of success should not be based on US meetings. It must be. Are fewer Nigerians dying this month than last month? Are farmers returning to their farms?
2. Restore Civil-Military Unity. The minister of defence, the NSA, service chiefs, and intelligence heads must speak with one voice. Rivalry in the security sector is a gift to insurgents.
3. Advice without fear or favour. History is a patient judge. Nigeria has experienced a succession of administrations. As we witnessed in 1998 and 2009, no office is permanent. Power is fiduciary. “To whom much is given, much is required.”
CONCLUSION: FEWER GRAVES, NOT BETTER PRESS
Mr President does not need advisers who manage his image. He needs advisers who will tell him the truth.
Lobbying will not help you escape Bokkos. You cannot contract your way out of Guma. You cannot explain away abductions in Lassa.
The Sahel taught us that threats without diplomacy isolate you. The Middle Belt is teaching us that communication without governance betrays you.
What Nigeria needs is less money for foreign optics and more investment in Nigerian lives. We need a security architecture that is proactive, unified, and focused on the human being.
The NSA should consider making an immediate pivot. Advise wisely. Coordinate fully. Prioritise human security.
The time for course correction is now. History is watching, and so are 230 million Nigerians. The way I see it, the world doesn’t take us seriously anymore. This insecurity is thriving because like General TY Danjuma once said, some of us are covering and even colluding with the enemies of the state. We are in dangerous times, but we seem not to know it. What a pity!
Striking the Balance
It’s Time We Invite the U.S. to Set Up a Military Base in Nigeria
It’s Time We Invite the U.S. to Set Up a Military Base in Nigeria.
By MS Abubakar, PhD, CAS
“Niger chose anger. Mali chose Wagner. Nigeria must choose a strategy.”
As a Northerner, I must confess a contradiction. When French and U.S. troops withdrew from Niger Republic in 2024, I celebrated on my street in Abuja. Like millions across West Africa, I had condemned the idea of a new foreign base in Northern Nigeria. My fears were not invented. They were fed by a powerful narrative: that France, in particular, orchestrates instability in the Sahel to protect uranium interests and CFA franc dominance. In Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali, the junta and the youth believe France sponsors or tolerates jihadists to justify its presence. I believed it too.
But conviction without evidence is dangerous. So, I asked harder questions.
1. The “Foreign Base = Instability” Myth Doesn’t Hold Up
America operates over 700 military facilities worldwide. In Africa alone it has Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti, bases in Kenya, Ghana, and drone operations in Niger before 2024. Did Kenya become a failed state? Did Ghana lose its democracy? No. In fact, Ghana ranks higher than Nigeria on the Global Peace Index and Human Development Index. Kenya, despite Al-Shabaab threats, has maintained state capacity and elections.
The common factor is not the base. It is governance. Where institutions are strong, foreign security cooperation is managed. Where institutions are weak, any presence—French, Russian, or American—becomes a political football.
2. Our Problem is Structural, Not Foreign.
Banditry in Zamfara, Boko Haram in Borno, ISWAP in Lake Chad, and kidnapping along the Abuja-Kaduna corridor are not imported problems. They are Nigerian problems with Nigerian roots: endemic poverty, where 63% live in multidimensional poverty per NBS, exclusion of rural communities from basic services, low HDI, ungoverned spaces, and porous borders the size of Western Europe.
No foreign soldier can fix bad governance. But a foreign base with ISR drones, satellite intelligence, and logistics can degrade the killers while we fix the system. That is the distinction I missed in 2024.
3. The Wagner Experiment in Mali Proved the Point
After expelling France, Mali invited Russia’s Wagner Group. Three years later, attacks increased, 300+ civilians were killed in Moura, and Wagner became accused of human rights abuses. If Russia had the capacity to stabilise the Sahel, Mali would be proof. It is not.
America brings something different: not just guns, but integrated intelligence, airlift, MEDEVAC, and training. The U.S. Africa Command’s “by, with, and through” doctrine means they build local capacity. That is what Nigeria needs now.
4. Our Military is Brave, But Overstretched
I say these words with respect: the Nigerian Armed Forces are arguably the third most powerful in Africa. Our soldiers have fought in ECOMOG, Sudan, and Somalia and against Boko Haram for 15 years. Their courage is legendary.
“Courage without equipment is martyrdom. Our soldiers deserve partners, not just praise.”
But courage without equipment is martyrdom. We have lost senior, serving, and retired officers—generals and colonels—to ambushes and IEDs. That tells you the enemy has better ISR and night-fighting capacity in some theaters. Our air force flies sorties, but lacks persistent drone coverage. Our army clears territory but cannot “hold” due to logistics gaps. A U.S. base can fill those specific gaps without commanding our troops.
5. Sovereignty is Negotiated, Not Surrendered
The fear of “neo-colonialism” is valid. But sovereignty is not an all-or-nothing idea. Japan hosts U.S. bases yet remains sovereign and industrialized. Germany does too. The key is a Status of Forces Agreement negotiated by Nigerians, for Nigerians. Terms can include: Nigerian command over operations, no unilateral raids, joint patrols only, technology transfer, and mandatory training of NAF and NA personnel.
“Sovereignty is negotiated, not surrendered. A base is a lease, not an occupation.”
A base is not an occupation. It is a lease. We lease land to MTN and Airtel. We can lease a corner of the north to a partner who helps us kill terrorists faster.
6. There Are Economic and Strategic Upsides
Beyond security, a U.S. base means infrastructure: better airstrips, hospitals, roads, and skilled jobs for locals. It means Nigeria becomes a hub for Sahel intelligence. That raises our diplomatic weight in ECOWAS and the AU. Currently, after Niger’s exit, the U.S. is looking for a reliable anchor state in the region. Why shouldn’t that be Nigeria?
The Call
I was wrong in 2024. Expelling partners did not bring peace to the Sahel. It created vacuums. Nigeria cannot afford a vacuum.
So, I am calling on fellow Nigerians, especially Northerners like me, to reconsider. Let us pressure the National Assembly and the presidency to open talks with Washington on a limited, transparent US military presence. Let us demand oversight, not rejection.
The Sahel is burning. Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali chose anger. Nigeria must choose strategy.
We should let the U.S. set up a military base in Nigeria to end the bloodshed, not because we’re weak.
Nigeria must not bleed alone when help is available.
Column
Inuwa Yahaya, NSGF and the Renewed Northern Resolve
Inuwa Yahaya, NSGF and the Renewed Northern Resolve
By Ismaila Uba Misilli
The resolutions from the recent meeting of the Northern States Governors’ Forum (NSGF) in Abuja, chaired by Gombe State Governor Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya, CON may well mark a turning point in the North’s response to its long-running security and development crises.
For a region that has spent the better part of the last decade battling insurgency, banditry, kidnapping, communal violence and economic disruption, the significance of this renewed collective resolve cannot be overstated.
What stands out in the Forum’s latest deliberations is not just the acknowledgement that the security situation has shown measurable improvement since its last meeting in December 2025 but the insistence that such gains must not breed complacency.
This is perhaps the most important lesson Northern leaders appear to have embraced: insecurity is not defeated by episodic military gains alone but by sustained political coordination, strategic financing and institutional continuity.
The decision to operationalise the Northern States Security Trust Fund, with each state contributing N1 billion monthly, is arguably one of the boldest regional security financing initiatives in recent Nigerian history.
This fund could be the game changer, as it will provide the North with a dependable mechanism for supporting intelligence gathering, rapid response logistics, surveillance systems and other complementary interventions that federal structures alone have struggled to deliver consistently.
The fact that some states have already begun making contributions sends a strong message that governors appreciate the urgency of moving from declarations to measurable commitments.
Security threats in the North do not respect state boundaries. A weak link in one state often becomes a direct threat to neighbouring territories. This situation is why the success of the Trust Fund depends on the size of the commitment and the discipline of compliance, as well as the integrity of its governance framework and the transparency of its accountability mechanisms.
Beyond security financing, the Forum’s parallel decision to invest in a permanent secretariat deserves equal attention.
The decision may seem administrative on the surface, but it is, in reality, a strategic institutional reform. Regional forums in Nigeria often lose momentum because decisions are tied too closely to individuals and political tenures. By building a functional secretariat backed by structured contributions, the NSGF, under Inuwa Yahaya, is laying the foundations for policy memory, continuity, and stronger coordination beyond electoral cycles.
This institutional strengthening is critical because the North’s challenges are too complex for ad hoc politics.
Perhaps nowhere is the need clearer than in the Forum’s sustained advocacy for state police, an issue that has moved from abstract constitutional debate to practical necessity.
The North’s security realities have exposed the limitations of an overly centralised policing architecture. Local threats require local intelligence. Communities under siege need security structures that understand their terrain, social dynamics and conflict triggers.
The NSGF’s continued push for state policing therefore reflects a realism grounded in the daily experiences of affected communities.
In this regard, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu deserves credit for engaging the National Assembly on the constitutional reforms required to make the proposal a reality. The president’s willingness to support the legal framework for state policing is quite in line with a growing national consensus that the old model is increasingly inadequate.
Still, the governors are right to look beyond the immediate manifestations of violence. One of the strongest points in the NSGF chairman’s remarks was his recognition that insecurity in the North is inseparable from poverty, illiteracy, unemployment and underdevelopment. This is a truth often repeated but rarely acted upon with the seriousness it deserves.
A region with millions of out-of-school children, high youth unemployment rates, and weak economic opportunities cannot sustainably secure itself through force alone. We must address the social conditions that create vulnerability to recruitment by criminal and extremist groups with the same urgency as military operations.
This is why investments in education, human capital development and youth enterprise are not secondary to security; they are central to it.
The same logic applies to the recurring farmer-herder conflicts that tend to intensify with the onset of the rainy season. By backing the federal government’s livestock transformation agenda, northern governors appear to be embracing a more structural solution to one of the region’s most persistent conflict drivers.
If modern livestock systems, ranching methods, and better agricultural practices are taken seriously, the North could turn a major cause of seasonal violence into a way to improve rural wealth.
What the latest NSGF meeting ultimately reveals is a growing recognition among Northern leaders that the region’s problems require a combination of security reform, institutional resilience, economic inclusion and political unity.
For too long, responses to Northern Nigeria’s crises have been fragmented, reactive and overly dependent on federal rescue. But the new posture, championed by Governor Inuwa Yahaya, suggests a shift towards shared ownership and regional responsibility.
Column
Gombe 2027: As Major Contenders Jostle To Succeed Governor Yahaya
Gombe 2027: As Major Contenders Jostle To Succeed Governor Yahaya
By Kabir Musa
As political discourse intensifies across Gombe State, public attention is increasingly shifting toward the potential successors of the current administration of Governor Inuwa Yahaya in the 2027 general election. No doubt, the governor has left an indelible footprint in the sands of history in Gombe, the “Jewel in the Savannah”, a state that’s enviably becoming the economic hub of not only the northeast but the entire northern Nigeria. Gov. Inuwa’s astronomical performance in the last seven years has further redefined possibilities.
Not only has Governor Yahaya transformed Gombe infrastructurally, Gombe has also become a melting point of ethnic and religious tolerance. Need I reiterate the importance of peace and stability in any progressing society? Yet, all the progress of the last 7 years will amount to nothing if a befitting successor who will continue with the beautiful policies and programmes of Governor Yahaya does not succeed him.
So, as the party navigates this critical juncture, the focus and indeed, the imperative for identifying a candidate who can build on Governor Yahaya’s legacy and propel Gombe State forward can never be overemphasised.
Here, the notion that a leader’s success is often measured by the competence of their successor becomes a timeless adage that’s both instructive and contingent. Given the governor’s high-stake performance in the last seven years, top contenders for his job must present credentials giving them the qualities of a successor worthy enough to take over the mantle of leadership in the state.
But as always, the quest for a worthy successor is not only delicate; it has been fraught with dangerous consequences. In this sense, therefore, Governor Yahaya’s administration is, at this material time, being put to the test, as the APC seeks to identify the successor that would carry the torch forward. The party’s decision will likely be influenced by factors such as the aspirant’s ability to maintain stability, build on existing projects, and inspire confidence among the diverse population of the state.
To land the right man for the job, a major consideration of the party must be the candidate’s vision for the state’s future, their commitment to the APC’s values, and their ability to connect with the electorate. Other key considerations must include the candidate’s track record, their network and alliances within the party, and their ability to navigate the complexities of Gombe’s politics, but most importantly, the preferred candidate must command acceptability across boards.
The chosen candidate will be expected to know how to balance the expectations of various stakeholders, including the governor, party leaders, and the people of Gombe. While this may appear simple, it is, in fact, the difference between a successor who understands his role as a runner in the governance marathon and one who works at cross purposes.
Ultimately, the APC’s decision will have far-reaching implications for the future of Gombe State. So far, several aspirants have signified interest from within the party, which suggests that the governor’s legacy is in good hands. Each of these individuals has diverse skills and experiences, which bode well for the state’s future.
However, because Governor Yahaya’s own legacy is also at stake, his ability to produce a competent successor will be seen as a reflection of his leadership and its sustainability. Therefore, a successful transition will cement his place in Gombe’s history as a leader who not only delivered results but also ensured continuity by handing over to suitable replacement.
As the APC embarks on this journey, it must take note that the people of Gombe State are observing closely, eager to see who will succeed the governor and chart the state’s course for the next chapter. So, there’s little margin for error.
The thinking then must be that the would-be successor commands a unique strength, such as experience in governance, finance, and youth empowerment. The APC has emphasised that the choice of successor will be a collective decision, prioritising continuity and stability.
As it stands, the APC is spoilt for choice with an array of hopefuls and prominent contenders currently dominating the headlines. While some have practically shown interest, albeit officially, political pundits have started mentioning names. These include the arc. Yunusa Yakubu, a distinguished architect. Yunusa Yakubu has built a reputation for designing vital public infrastructure, including schools and government conference centres. Political analysts suggest that his professional expertise in urban development, combined with a growing grassroots appeal, makes him a formidable “technocrat” candidate.
Another name going around is that of Dr Abdulsalam Yahaya Ahmed, who is being considered for his “homegrown” approach to investment. While many members of the elite focus on Abuja or Lagos, he has prioritised local development in Gombe. As a former MD/CEO of Federal Mortgage Bank and Board Member of NATFUND, he oversaw significant infrastructure projects, including but not limited to the provision of housing infrastructure (Gombe Investment housing estate, Labour Quarters, Babayo Goje housing estate, among others) and job creation for hundreds of Gombe indigenes in the Federal Government.
In his role as Executive Director, Operations, of NEDC, Dr Abdulsalam oversaw the construction and rehabilitation of many schools, hospitals and roads/bridges; the installation of solar streetlights; and the provision of boreholes as well as the distribution of palliatives where and when needed. His philanthropic efforts in food security have earned him the reputation of a leader who is deeply connected to the masses.
Also, Sa’idu Ahmed Alkali, the current Federal Minister of Transportation, brings significant national weight to the race. His experience in the federal cabinet and his established influence within the Gombe political landscape provide him with a strong foundation to mobilise support during the party primaries. He was a senator representing the Gombe North senatorial district for two terms before he was appointed minister by President Bola Tinubu’s administration.
Still from the same local government area as Senator Alkali, a prominent APC stalwart, Dr Bello Maigari (Tafidan Dukku) is said to be nursing ambition and may throw his hat in the 2027 race. Though he maintains a low profile locally, Dr Bello Maigari is a power player in the nation’s capital. Serving in various federal capacities, he is known to have a very close relationship with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. This proximity to the presidency, coupled with his administrative experience, positions him as a high-stakes contender for 2027.
There are also some who have decided to keep their ambitions close to their chest, maybe for strategic reasons. One of them is the present accountant general of the state, Aminu Yuguda. Yuguda is believed to be in the race, as his posters have been seen in several parts of the state even as his supporters have since begun a push towards actualising such a dream. As the current accountant general of Gombe State, Aminu Yuguda holds a strategic position. His deep understanding of the state’s fiscal management and the inner workings of the current administration makes him a candidate to watch. Analysts believe his grasp of governance logistics provides him with a unique advantage.
Also, Jamilu Gwamna’s unprecedented stay in the state and the fanfare that greeted his APC membership validation and subsequent donation of a huge sum to the various organs of the party, among other factors, suggest that Dr Jamilu Ishyaku Gwamna is also in the race, though, like others, he is yet to make any official statement. Dr Jamil is a well-known figure in Gombe politics. His legacy is tied to youth empowerment. During his tenure in the power sector in Kano, he was credited with securing jobs for numerous Gombe youths. His track record as a major employer of labour in the state continues to fuel his popularity among the younger demographic.
Another strong contender, perhaps the strongest of the lot as far as those yet to declare their interest is concerned, is Prof. Isah Ali Pantami, the former Minister of Communications and Digital Economy. Pantami is a household name nationally. Known for his academic brilliance and structured leadership style, Pantami appeals to voters who prioritise intellectual sagacity and a modernised approach to governance. He also was in Gombe and was welcomed by a mammoth crowd during the APC membership revalidation exercise. This was at a time speculations were rife that he might join the opposition ADC. Yet, his recent activities, including donating to the party, appear to have to rest all the speculations and strengthen the people’s belief that he’ll be in the race.
There’s also Sarkin Fulani Gombe, a seasoned financial expert and politician. Sarkin Fulani Gombe boasts an extensive network that spans local, national, and international circles. His ability to bridge the gap between traditional influence and modern financial expertise makes him a highly influential factor in the 2027 calculations.
A smooth and seamless selection process for the Gombe APC governorship candidate can yield significant advantages. When a party presents a united front, with candidates emerging from primaries with minimal rancour, the opposition is left with fewer scandals to exploit. This is particularly crucial in Gombe, where the APC is seeking to build on Governor Inuwa Yahaya’s legacy and secure another term in office with a lineup of competent candidates.
In politics, perception is key, and a harmonious primary process can create a powerful narrative of party unity and strength. This can boost the eventual candidate’s momentum, allowing them to focus on key campaign issues rather than internal party squabbles. A united party also enhances the candidate’s credibility and legitimacy, making it more challenging for opponents to gain traction.
Conversely, a contentious primary can provide the opposition with valuable ammunition, creating divisions and weakening the party’s structure. When internal conflicts spill into the public domain, it distracts from the key campaign issues and erodes the candidate’s credibility. The opposition can capitalise on these divisions, exploiting the ruling party’s vulnerabilities and gaining an advantage in the process.
The Gombe APC can learn from past experiences, prioritising a peaceful and inclusive selection process to ensure a strong, united front for the 2027 elections. By doing so, the party can minimise opposition attack points, showcase its unity and strength, and focus on delivering its message to the people. Ultimately, a smooth transition will be crucial in securing another term in office and continuing the progress made under Governor Yahaya’s administration.
For the APC, getting it wrong is not an option. It’s, however, left to be seen how it can manage the expectations of all the array of qualified and competent contenders in its ranks.
Musa writes from T/Wada, Gombe.
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